这是一个令人震惊的故事，美国长期失败的经济和国家安全政策，在扼杀经济的同时，还导致它在许多下一代武器系统上落后于中国。
与此同时，中国的进步主要源于其在稀土资源生产、精炼、材料科学、冶金、知识产权、研发以及商业与国防应用方面为取得世界领先地位而付出超乎寻常的努力。稀土包括元素周期表上的17种元素，它们是大多数现代技术和武器系统的关键成分。
这对所有遵循美国核管理委员会或国际原子能机构法规的国家的稀土生产造成了深远影响。中国是国际原子能机构的观察员国，但不是其缔约国。
今天，中美之间的差距仍在持续，部分原因是五角大楼、政府机构以及金融和采矿行业在开采和氧化物生产层面衡量稀土提取。数百个稀土开采项目在中国以外启动，错误地让人以为西方对中国稀土的依赖在下降。然而，大多数项目最终都失败了。
在2012年上市的400多家稀土创业公司中，进入了生产阶段的只有不到五家，达到一定产量的只有两家，其中一家破产后在中国融资下复活，另一家在短期内失去了经营许可。
在此期间，中国从许多已宣告失败或濒临失败的项目中获取了重要的股权和债务头寸。一旦项目启动生产，中国将掌握控制权。
此外，只把稀土开采和提纯氧化物列入报告会扭曲政府的政策决定，因为这些材料在被精炼成金属之前几乎无法应用到技术或国防领域。只有中国具备精炼能力。事实上，中国以外所有的稀土矿场都将精矿或高价值氧化物运往中国，加工成稀土金属、合金、磁铁和其他高价值材料。
美国太专注于稀土开采而非整个稀土供应链，对其国家安全和经济安全产生了负面作用，因为所有国防和技术应用都始于稀土卑金属或其他后氧化物，而不是新采掘的矿石或氧化物。中国已经在全球范围内锁定了获取稀土金属、合金、磁铁和大多数后氧化物的途径。
2016年2月，美国政府问责局发布报告《稀土材料：制定综合性手段有助于国防部更好管控供应链中的国家安全风险》（“RareEarthMaterials:DevelopingaComprehensiveApproachCouldHelpDoDBetterManageNationalSecurityRisksintheSupplyChain”）。据其估算，美国可能需要15年才能重建国内稀土供应链。
美国的决策者们几乎都不明白这些问题的复杂性。如果告诉他们，中国只要选择禁运这些材料，就有可能关停其他国家所有的汽车、电脑、智能手机和飞机装配线，他们必然目瞪口呆。同样的情况也可能发生在美国和北约所有依赖稀土的武器系统上。这些供应链是可以切断的。因此，西方的军事采购处于中国的控制之下。
尽管如此，美国政府报告和评估都没有做出以上论断，因为它们在统计上都用稀土开采量和氧化物生产量来代替包括金属、合金、磁铁、石榴石和其他后氧化物在内的所有稀土材料。一旦爆发危机，美国缺乏应急准备。
以上提到的材料，在美国国防后勤局中几乎没有储备。美国政府在1994年至1998年间变卖了全部稀土战略储备。国防后勤局目前的战略储备只有少量稀土氧化物和镝金属。这种形态的材料无法供美国国防工业直接使用。政府问责局的报告指出，这些材料需要经过中国供应链加工才能被利用。
为什么？因为美国国防部等机构评估供应安全风险时，仍然以全球稀土氧化物产量作为基础，忽略了下游制造业供应链面临的风险。
十年来，国会议员、国防部和两届政府反复收到警报，但真正了解其中风险的人还是太少。
美国决策者们坚信技术领先地位是美国最大的经济和国家安全优势。但由于稀土的关系，这一点已经发生了变化。因此，我所在的ThREE咨询公司在全球范围内对稀土专利申请进行了调查。专利申请量可以帮助我们较准确地评估中国下一代武器系统和列入规划的其他技术。
在过去的40年里，不论在制造业和工业基础政策报告、递交给国会的中国威胁报告或信息采集报告里，美国国防部都从未把中国的稀土生产和稀土专利数量作为严肃关切的对象。
白宫最近下令撰写的一份报告终于承认了这个问题。《美国制造与国防工业基础和供应链弹性评估与强化》（“AssessingandStrengtheningtheManufacturingandDefenseIndustrialBaseandSupplyChainResiliencyoftheUnitedStates”）提出，“中国对关乎美国国家安全的战略性关键材料供应构成重大且不断提升的风险。”
对于美国国防部和国防承包商而言，过去几十年可以说一帆风顺：预算越来越多，股价也越来越高。然而，中国却利用这段时期为超越和取代西方奠定了基础。北京一直对稀土研究给予直接或间接的资助，并实施技术转让策略，这些努力得到了回报。
中国的进步正在迅速改变全球力量均势，将未来掌握在自己手中。军事专家称，未来的定向能武器（directedenergyweapons）将改写或控制战局。而每种定向能武器都需要重稀土和高尖端材料科学能力。中国控制着美国获取这些材料的渠道。这些因素导致中国目前在该领域具备优势，这意味着中国最终将在定向能武器的研发与部署上引领全球。
这对五角大楼的专家来说是个坏消息，因为维持美国安全的核心计划是以维持技术领先地位为基础的。中国在五角大楼的观察员们的眼皮底下勇敢地跨过了这道门槛，可后者却视而不见、充耳不闻，并且显然没有后备计划。
解除中国对美国经济和国防扼制的办法，目前已经送达参议院和联邦政府。美国政界若再不放下内部仇怨、恢复治理，一切就都太晚了。
ChinaSolidifiesDominanceinRareEarthProcessing
America’srelativefallfromdefensetechnologicalleadershipmirrorsitsdeclineinrareearthcapabilities.
Thisisanappallingstoryofalong-runningU.S.economicandnationalsecurityfailurethathasputthenationbehindChinaonmanynext-generationweaponsystemswhilestiflingtheeconomy.
Meanwhile,China’sadvancesarelargelybuiltonitsunparalleledcommitmenttoleadingtheworldinrareearthresourceproduction,refining,materialscience,metallurgy,intellectualproperty,researchanddevelopment,andcommercialanddefenseapplications.Rareearthsare17elementsontheperiodictablethatarenowcriticalcomponentsinmostmoderntechnologiesandweaponsystems.
TheU.S.rareearthsupplychainwasfirstcompromisedin1980.ANuclearRegulatoryCommissionandInternationalAtomicEnergyAgencychangeinregulations—“Part40:DomesticLicensingofSourceMaterial”—inadvertentlyusheredinthetransferofallaspectsofU.S.rareearthindustrytoChina.
Priortothat,heavyrareearthscamefromthorium-bearingbyproductsofcommoditiessuchasironore,titanium,zirconorrockphosphate.Companiesthatminedthesemineralscouldextracttherareearthbyproductsandmakealittleextraprofit.Onceanythingcontainingthoriumwasconsideredapotentialsourceofnuclearfuelandhighlyregulated,thatended.Duetothecostsandliabilities,theseminingcompaniesdivertedtheserareearthresourcesintotheirminetailingsaswasteandburiedthem.
ThishadaprofoundimpactonrareearthproductioninallNRC/IAEAcompliantcountries.ChinaisanIAEAobserver,butnotasignatorytoitsagreements.
Today,thedisparitybetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatescontinuesinpartbecausethePentagon,governmentagencies,andthefinanceandminingindustriesmeasuretheextractionofrareearthsattheminingandoxideproductionlevel.HundredsofrareearthminingprojectsoutsideofChinahavebeeninitiated,givingtheerroneousimpressionthatWesternrareearthdependenceonChinamaybedeclining.However,mostultimatelyfail.
Outofmorethan400rareearthstartupspubliclylistedin2012,lessthanfivereachedproduction.Ofthose,onlytworeachedsignificantvolumes.Ofthosetwo,oneisbankruptandresurrectedwithChinesefinancingandtheotherlostitsoperatingpermitforashortperiod.
Duringthistime,Chinahastakensignificantequityanddebtpositionsinmanyofthesefailedorfalteringprojectsandwillcontrolthemiftheybeginproduction.
Also,reportingsolelyonminedrareearthsorpurifiedoxidesdistortsgovernmentpolicydecisionsbecausethesematerialshavenosignificanttechnologyordefenseapplicationuntiltheyarerefinedintometals.OnlyChinahasthecapacitytodothat.Infact,everynon-Chineserareearthmineshipsitsconcentrates,orhigh-valueoxides,toChinaforprocessingintorareearthmetals,alloys,magnetsandotherhigh-valuematerials.
Preoccupationwithrareearthmininginsteadoftheentirerareearthsupplychainunderminesnationalandeconomicsecuritybecausealldefenseandtechnologyapplicationsbeginwithbaserareearthmetalsorotherpost-oxidematerials,notfreshlyunearthedoreoroxides.Chinahasagloballockonaccesstorareearthmetals,alloys,magnetsandmostotherpost-oxidematerials.
Meanwhile,aFebruary2016GovernmentAccountabilityOfficereport,“RareEarthMaterials:DevelopingaComprehensiveApproachCouldHelpDoDBetterManageNationalSecurityRisksintheSupplyChain,”estimateditcouldtaketheUnitedStates15yearstorebuildadomesticrareearthsupplychain.
FewifanyU.S.policymakersunderstandthesesubtleties.MostwouldbestunnedtolearnthatChinacouldshutdownnearlyeveryautomobile,computer,smartphoneandaircraftassemblylineoutsideofChinaiftheychosetoembargothesematerials.Thesameappliestoallrare-earthdependentU.S.andNATOweaponsystems.Thesesupplychainscanbecut.WesternmilitaryprocurementthusisunderChinesecontrol.
Despitethis,governmentreportsandassessmentshavenotmadethesedeterminationsbecausetheyacceptstatisticsonrareearthminingandoxideproductionasaproxyformetals,alloys,magnets,garnetsandotherpost-oxiderareearthmaterials.Thereisnocontingencyincaseofacrisis.
MostofthesenamedmaterialsarenotstockpiledbytheDefenseLogisticsAgency.TheU.S.governmentsoldoffitsentirestrategicreserveofrareearthsbetween1994and1998.Theagency’sstrategicreservenowholdsonlysmallamountsofrareearthoxidesanddysprosiummetal.Noneareinaformthatcanbedirectlyutilizedbyourdefenseindustry.TheGAOreportedthatthesematerialswouldneedtopassthroughaChinesesupplychaininordertobeutilized.
Allrareearthmetals,alloysandmagnetsusedbyU.S.defensecontractorsandtechnologyfirmscanbetracedbacktoChina:directlyorindirectlythroughJapanesesourcingorviaU.S.alloyandmagnetfabricators.
AccordingtoaJuly2014DefenseDepartmentInspectorGeneralreport,“ProcedurestoEnsureSufficientRareEarthElementsfortheDefenseIndustrialBaseNeedImprovement,”thePentagonisincapableofproperlymonitoringrareearthinputsatthecomponentandsubcontractorlevel.Worseyet,itwasclearfromthereportthatnooneinthePentagondifferentiatesbetweenrareearthoxides—withnodefenseapplications—andthepost-oxidesmaterialsneededforthedefensesystems—andnonebothertoaskwherethesematerialscomefrom.
WhyBecausethePentagonandotherscontinuetoevaluateU.S.nationalsecuritysupplyriskonthebasisofglobalrareearthoxideproduction.Riskstothedownstreammanufacturingsupplychainaresimplyignored.
After10yearsofraisingthealarmonthisissuewithmembersofCongress,theDefenseDepartmentandtwoadministrations,toofewunderstandtheriskswearefacing.
U.S.policymakersbelievethattechnologyleadershipisthecountry’sgreateststrength,botheconomicallyandfornationalsecurity.Butthisisnolongertrueasitrelatestorareearths.Therefore,ThREEConsultingcommissionedaworldwiderareearthpatentfilingssurvey.Patentfilingsareareasonableproxyofpotentialnext-generationweaponsystemsandothertechnologythatcouldbeinChina’spipeline.
Thedatawerederivedfromanexhaustiveinternationalrareearthpatentsearchbycountryoforigin.Thesearchdateswereunbounded:fromthefirstfiledpatenttothelastfilingsofAugust2018.Thedatasetincludesover80,000patents.Searchtermswererareearth(s),lanthanide(s),lanthanum,cerium,praseodymium,neodymium,promethium,samarium,europium,gadolinium,terbium,dysprosium,holmium,erbium,thulium,ytterbium,scandiumandyttrium.
China’sfirstinternationalrareearthpatentfilingwasin1983,andjust14yearslater,ChinasurpassedtheUnitedStatesandeveryothernationintotalpatentsfiledasshowninthechart.AsofAugust2018,Chinahasaccumulated23,000morerareearthpatentfilingsthantheUnitedStates.
Herearesomeotherfindings:Chinahasfiledmorerareearthpatentsthantherestoftheworldcombinedeveryyearsince2011.Byearly2021,Chinawillhaveaccumulatedmorerareearthpatentsthantherestoftheworldcombined.Chinesecompaniescanusepatent-trollingandpatent-ring-fencinglegalstrategiestoundermineornullifyexistingnon-Chinesepatents.China’srateoffilingsisacceleratingrelativetotherestoftheworld—increasing250percentfrom2011to2018.
Atnotimeoverthelast40yearswasChina’srareearthproduction,oritsgrowingnumberofrareearthpatents,listedasanissueofseriousconcernbythePentagoninanyofitspastmanufacturingandindustrialbasepolicyreports,reportstoCongressonChinathreats,oracquisitionreports.
Finally,arecentreportorderedbytheWhiteHouseacknowledgedtheproblem.“AssessingandStrengtheningtheManufacturingandDefenseIndustrialBaseandSupplyChainResiliencyoftheUnitedStates,”statedthat“ChinarepresentsasignificantandgrowingrisktothesupplyofmaterialsdeemedstrategicandcriticaltoU.S.nationalsecurity.”
ForthePentagonanddefensecontractorsthelastfewdecadeshavebeengood:everlargerbudgetsandsoaringstockprices.China,however,usedthistimetosetthegroundworktoovertakeanddisplacetheWest.Beijing’scommitmenttodirectandindirectfundingofrareearthresearchandaforcedtechnology-transferstrategyhaspaidoff.
China’sadvancesarequicklyalteringtheglobalbalanceofpower,anditsfuturewillbeinitshands.Forexample,directedenergyweaponswillalterorcontrolmilitaryoutcomesinthefuture,accordingtomilitaryexperts.However,everysingledirected-energyweaponalsorequiresheavyrareearthsandhighlyadvancedmaterialsciencecapabilities.ChinacontrolsU.S.accesstothesematerials.AllofthisplaysintoChina’scurrentstrengthsinthesefields,suggestingthatthenationwilleventuallyleadtheworldinthedevelopmentanddeploymentofdirectenergyweapons.
ThisisbadnewsforPentagonexpertswhosecentralplanforcontinuedU.S.securitywasbasedoncontinuedtechnologyleadership.ChinahasboldlycrossedthisthresholdinplainviewofthePentagon’sclassicthree-monkeyobservationteam.Andapparently,thereisnobackupplan.
SolutionstoovercomingChina’sstrangleholdovertheeconomyandnationaldefensearecirculatingintheSenateandexistwithintheadministration.It’spasttimetostoptherancorinsidetheBeltwayandgetbacktogoverning.