TheOilDrumDrumBeat:October21,2007

PostedbyLeananonOctober21,2007-8:54am

Wehaveseenmuchattentionpaidlatelytothepotentialforlargesealevelrisesduetoclimatechange,butglobalwarmingalsohasothereffectsonwatersystems-mostsignificantlyapotentiallysubstantialreductionintheamountoffreshwateravailabletosustainhumanpopulations.

InAustralia,TimFlannerypointedoutsometimeagothata10%dropinrainfallresultedina70%dropinavailablewaterduetoincreasedevaporationfromwarmertemperatures,whichiswhyAustraliaiscurrentlyexperiencingsuchseverewatershortages.Otherareascouldbesettoexperiencesomethingsimilar,especiallyiftheglacierssupplyingmajorriversystemsinpopulousregionsmelt.Inaworldoffallingwatertables,andlessenergyavailableforpumpingwaterfromever-increasingdepths,thisisatrendtowatch,andnotjustforthepurposeofmakingmoneyfromscarcityasinvestmentnewsletterswouldhaveyoubelieve.

AlsointhisEnergy&EnvironmentRound-Up,wefollowtheon-goingresourceroyaltydebateinAlberta,therowoverequalizationpaymentsandresourceownershipintheMaritimes,andtheopeningofatokenhydrogenrefuelingstationinOttawa.Ontheinternationalstage,welookatChina'stidalwaveofgrowthandincreasingenergydemand,andthedevelopinggeopoliticaltensionsthatarecombiningwithrampantspeculationtopushthepriceofoiltorecordhighs.

ThatpictureremindsmethatIgotcurioustheotherdayaboutwaterlevelsatLakeMead,andranacrossthisexcellentpagewithagraph:

The'bath-tubring'inthephotoaboveis100feethigh!

"Theywerejudgedonwhethertheymaintainedacomfortabletemperature,hadadequatelighting,sufficientpowerforhouseholdappliancesandhomeelectronics,andhotwater--allproducedusingsolarenergy."

"Thehousesalsohadtopoweranelectricvehicle."

Iwalkedthroughthehouseyesterday.Theydidsomeinterestingthings,andnotsurprisinglythehousehadadefinite"Euro"feeltoit.Mygirlfriendthoughtitcold,plusthebedwasburiedinthefloor,whichtousseemedimpractical.

TheUniversityofMarylandhousewon2nd,andwefoundthattobemuchmorecomfortablefeeling.Likeyoucouldjustmoveinandfeelathome.

Forthepurposesofthecompetition,thehomesarelimitedto800squarefeet.IsupposethatwastomakeiteasiertotransportthethingstoDC.Somepeoplecouldliveinthatamountofspace,otherswouldfeeltheneedformore.Iguessitdependsonhowmuchstuffyouhave.

Mysenseisthatthecrowdsweregreaterthantheywere2yearsago.ThewaitinglinefortheGermanhomewasatleast30minutes,similarwaitfortheMarylandhouse.Thereweresomeofthehousesforwhichtherewereshorterlines,nonehadnolines.

Bearinmindthatyour"stuff"expandstofilltheavailablespace.

Hiericy,thanksforyourreport(Iamtoofaraway,evenfromDarmstadttobeabletoseethehousemyself).

Tobehonest:IlikedtheMarylandhousebetterfromtheoutside(fromthepicturesonthewebsite,ofcourse).ThewinnerfromDarmstadtseemedalittlelikearabbitcagetome,soIwonderedwhytheywererankedhighestfromtheviewofarchitecture.

Buildinghousesandtearingthemdownaweeklaterwithoutanyoneeverlivinginthem.We'llsaveahellalotofenergythatway:)

|Theproblemwillsolveitself.|Butnotinaniceway.

Wecouldn'tstandthewaitfortheGermanhouselastSunday...atleast30min,maybemore.TheMarylandhousewasverycomfortable,agreed,nicepolishandattentiontodesign.Thekidstheredidn'tseemasknowledgeableastheUCBoulderorMITteams.

Thewholethingwasinspiring.

IsawtheMIThousetoo-IguessbecauseIwentthere.Ihavetoadmitthatknowingtheplace,Iwasn'texpectingmuchfromanaestheticpointofview.IIRC,theyweren'tthere2yearsago,soIsupposeitisn'tbadfora1steffort.

Itseemsthatasuccessfulentrytendstohaveagoodworkingrelationshipbetweenengineering,architectureandinteriordesign.Yeah,thehouseneedstobeenergyefficientandhavethesolarcells,andthatpartallneedstowork.Butgiventhe800sqfootlimitation,youcannotreallyhaveanywastedspaceeither-youneedareallygoodfloorplan.Andfinally,thethingjustneedstolookcomfortable.

ASPOHouston:

Itwasnicetomeetallthefolksfromtheoildrumandseeandmeetthemasrealpeoplenotjustasanonymouscontributors.

OnFridayafternoontheirwasaroundtablebyHenryGroppe,CharlesTMaxwell,andBoonePickens.

Mr.GroppepresentedsomeremarkstotheeffectthatKSAhadmadesomewrongdecisionsduetotheIEAstatingthatnon-OPECoilproductionin07wouldincreasebysome1.7MMbrl’sperday.KSAthendecidedthatOPEC’sproductionshouldbecutbythisamount,andachievedareductionof1.5MMbrl’sperday.Whileinrealitynon-OPECproductionneverincreasedatall.HealsostatedthathewasoftheopinionthatinthefutureKSAcouldachieve12to15MMbrl’sperdayandnotthe+20thatsomeproject.

Mr.MaxwellpresentedsomeremarkstotheeffectthatInternationaloilCO’shadreliedontheEIAandCERApricedatabackin05tobeintherangeof35to40Dollarsin09.TheOilCO’swereoftheopinionthatiftheyheldbackontheirE&Pbudgetstheycouldgetcheaperratesinthefuture.TheyarenowinthepositionwheretheywillhavetospendenormoussumstoachievetheirgoalsinE&P.

Thesearesomeofthecausesofthecurrenthighprices.

MrPickenswasoftheopinionthatProductionwouldneverexceed85MMbrl’sperday,andwewouldsee100dollaroilbeforewesee80.IMOitmaybetohisadvantagemakethesekindsofprojections.

ThisisofcoursemyunderstandingoftheircommentsandpleasecorrectmeifIaminerror.

RegardingMr.Pickensandhispredictiononoilprices,IrealizeheisinvestinginwindfarmsinTexas,butIdon'tthinkthatpresentsaconflictofinterestnoranadvantageforhimtomakebullishpredictionsaboutoil.Now,ifhewerepredictingloweroilpricesandalsoinvestinginwindfarms,thenIwouldquestionhismotives.Asitis,Idon'tthinkhispredictionsaregoingtoactuallyaffectthepriceofoilsoIdon'tseewhatadvantagehegains.Iseehimasaguywiththeknowledgetomakeaccuratepredictionsandthegutstoputhismoneywherehismouthis.

-Don

GuyslikePickens,Simmons,andBuffettallhaveenoughmoneythatIdon'tthinktheyneedtoscampeopletomakemore...

Ifollowwhattheyallhavetosayandwhattheydowiththeirmoneytogivemyselfahintastowhat'stocome.

Theyareallsmartinvestors,humbleandhavebeenaroundforawhile...theydon'tneedtoimpressanyoneandarethinkingbeyondtheirbottomdollarIMHO.

Dragonfly41,Iagreewithyourcomment:'guyslikePickens,Simmons,andBuffettallhaveenoughmoneythatIdontthinktheyneedtoscampeopletomakemore...'

Ialsofollowwhattheydo,butpaylessattentiontowhattheysay.

Idontagreewith'yourhumbleopinion.'

'Thesepeople'...Well,whatdo'thesepeople'doTheyplaythegameofcapitalisimandtheyareverygoodatit.Theyareperfectlysuitedtothegameandtheywillcontinuetoplayitaslongastheyaresuccessful,havesharpminds,seethetrendsandactonthem,makemoremoneyandenlargetheiregoswhileacting'humble'...(sometimes).Moneyisthemeansbywhichtheykeepscore.

Oneofmyfavoritelinesisfromthemovie'ChinaTown'...JackNicholson,upondiscoveringthatthewealthyoftheLAareaarebusilycuttingoffwatertofarmersandforcingfarmstosellat'firesale'prices,isstunned.Thenhedeliverstheline(questioningwhythewealthywouldforcepoorfarmersoutofbusinesstofurtherenrichthemselves)...'MyGod,howmuchbettercantheyeat'...Nicholsonscharacterdidntunderstandthatthewealthywerenotconcernedwitheatingbetterorhavingfinermansionsorbiggerautos...Thewealthyweresimplyplayingthegameofcapitalisim...And,thewealthycouldcarelesswhogetshurt,aslongastheywin(profit)inthegame.

Someindividuals,likeRobertoClemente,areperfectlysuitedtoplaybaseball.Someindividuals,likethetriomentionedabove,areperfectlysuitedtoplaycapitalisim.

AlotofuswerepuzzledbyMr.Groppe'sandMrMaxwell'scommentsregardingSaudiArabia,especiallyMr.Groppesinceheshowedthatcrude+condensateproductionhadpeaked.

So,ofthefourlongtimeenergyinsiders,threeofthem--Pickens,Simmons&Groppe--allthoughtthatatleastcrude+condensateproductionhadpeaked(PickenswasusingTotalLiquids).

Mr.Maxwellthoughtthatwewouldseeabriefpullbackinoilprices,followedbyanotherpriceincreaseinsixtoninemonths.

MyApril,2006lettertotwoTexasnewspapersregardingMr.PickensandMr.Rainwater:

Myrecurringquestion:IfyoubelievePickens,Rainwater,Simmons,etal,regardingPeakOil,wouldn'tyouavoidbuyingtheSUVtodrivetoandfromthe$500,000mortgage

IfyoubelieveExxonMobil,SaudiAramco,Yergin,etal,regardingPeakOil,wouldn'tyoubemorelikelytobuytheSUV,thusdrivingupenergydemandandprices

So,whoisroyallytryingtoscrewtheAmericanpublic

"So,whoisroyallytryingtoscrewtheAmericanpublic"

Hmm.Classiccaseofafalsesetofchoices,andalsoamisleadingquestion.ItmaynotbethecasethatanyoneistryingtoscrewtheAmericanpublicbutthattherethereareplentywhicharesucceedingsimplythroughacombinationofignoranceandgreed,andthatgroupincludestheAmericanpublicitself.

HelloWT,

Justoutofcuriosity:wasanyASPOConf.attendeesdoingmysuggestedPeakoilshoutoutwhentheiryeastybeverageofchoicereachedhalf-emptyduringthecocktailsessionsorlate-nightyada,yada,yadas

BobShawinPhx,AzAreHumansSmarterthanYeast

Ithoughtthecommentaboutthe1.7MMbbl/daydropbyMr.Groppewasabitsurprisingalso.IthinkthatStuartStaniford'sanalysispresentedatASPOandontheOilDrumdefinitelyisagoodtechnicalbasistobelievethatitwasnotvoluntary.

OneunknownhereiswhetherMr.Groppeiswellconnectedenough(heprobablyis)togetsomedirectinformationfromtheKSAroyalfamilyaboutwhat'shappeningthere.

TherewasanotherpartofhiscommentsthoughthatIhavedifficultyaccepting,andthatwasthepartaboutKSAbeingabletoproduce12to15MMbbl/dayforalongperiod(andIthoughtIactuallyheardhimsay20MMbbl/day).Ithinkit'spossiblethattheymaygetto,say,10MMbbl/daywiththeircurrentintensedrillingprogram,butIcannotconcieveof12to15MMbbl/day.

ImustalsosayIwasdumbfoundedatMrGroppe'sconfidenceinsayingSaudicouldproduce12-14mbpd.Itsbehavioratcurrentpricessaysotherwise.Also,fromamoralPOV,somanypoornationsaregreatlysufferingatthecurrentpricelevelsuchthattheSaudisareguiltyofagreatsiniftheycanactuallyproduceenoughandthuscausethepricetofall.

Articlefromtoday'sObserverwhichmentionsthedeclineratesforexistingfields,andoverallproductiondeclinefacingoilcompanies:

Andanalystsexpectthewholeoilsectortoreportpoorthird-quarterresultsinthenextfewweeks,soBPisnotaloneinbearingbadnews.

Mostcompanieshavepumpedlessoilthisyearthanlast.DresdnerKleinwortestimatesthesectorhasproduced4.4percentlessyear-on-year.Thisispartlyalong-termtrendasmaturefieldsrundown.MorganStanleyanalystssaythattheaveragerateofproductiondeclineforcompanies'existingfieldsis8to12percentayear.Tooffsetthis,companieshavetofindnewfieldsquickly,whichareofteninmoretechnicallychallenging-andexpensive-places,suchasinverydeepwaterortheicywastesofSiberia.

Asproductionmethodsbecomemorecomplex,sothescopeforthingstogowrongincreases.Forexample,ThunderHorse-thelargestplatformintheworld,designedtodrillthedeepestwellsinthearea-isstilllanguishingintheGulfofMexico,plaguedbytechnicalproblemsafterbeinghitbyHurricaneDennistwoyearsago.

Asproductionmethodsbecomemorecomplex,sothescopeforthingstogowrongincreases.

Ithinkthisconceptalsoappliestoadvancedrecoverytechniquesonold,abandonedoilfields.Surethelittlecompaniescouldcomeinandtrytoturnabuckonthese,butitismoreinvolved,complexthanitusedtobe...morevariablesandfactorsthatCOULDgowrong.

It'sgoingtorequirebigloansforcapitalinvestment,andthismaygetharderandharderduetocreditproblems(i.e.,bankswillingnesstogiveloansouttoriskybusinessspeculations).

Geopoliticsinthenews:

HiLeanan,

EvangelicalChristiansdefendGod'screation

Ihaven'tbotheredtothinkaboutwhatcouldbedoneabouttheinfluenceofthereligiousrightintheirseeminglylackofconcernaboutGlobalwarmingbutitlookslikesomehave.

IdonotthinkitisanexaggerationtosuggestthattheredefiningofprioritiesbyevangelicalsinAmericacouldhaveadecisiveeffectontheoutcomeoftheelectionandthefutureofAmerica,andhencethefutureoftheEarth.(Jones,2007)

Counteringtheselfabsorptionoftheideaof'rapture'withastatementthattoinjuretheearthistomakeablasphemyofGodscreationcouldbeanarrowinthegreenquiverthatmightgoalongwayiffiredfromasteepleortwo.

ButwhatdoIknowaboutit,IamtheSundayschoolmiscreantwhosatontherailwaytracksunderthesunnybluesky,waitingfortheotherkidstocomeoutofthatdarkchurchbasement,beforereturninghomewiththem:)

ThecorrectnameisthedisloyalChristianRightandcareshouldbetakeninwritingandconversationtodifferentiatebetweenthishighlyirresponsible,undesirablelotandplainol'Christians.ThevastmajorityofthosewhoprofesstofollowtheteachingsofthisJesusfellowarenotmembersofadoomsdaycult...

SorryaboutthatSacred,IamalongwaynorthofallthatandamafraidfromheretheMSNie.CNNcloudstheview.Withouttryingtobeargumentative,thosewhoarenotmemebersofadoomsdaycultwheredotheygenerallystandonGW,isitanissueorsomethingoutsidetheirinterests

They'veallgotthebible,buttherearemanyflavorsofChristians.Thekeywordsarepremillenialandpostmillenial-onegroupbelievestheyneedtobuildaChristianworldandrunitforathousandyears,thenJesusreturns,whileothersbelievehereturnsandthenthereisathousandyearreign.I'mnotallthathiponthedetails,butPoliticalResearchAssociateshascovereditallingloriousdetail:

ThevastmajorityofthosewhoprofesstofollowtheteachingsofthisJesusfellowarenotmembersofadoomsdaycult...

HuhMaybeyouhaven'treadallthescriptures,isn'tApocalypse,EndofTimes,etc..."partofthepackage"Curiouslyitseemsthatallcultshavesomesortofdoomsdaypredication.Coulditbeaniceevolutionaryfeaturewhichresult(ifnotpurpose)willbetogetthenutcasesoutofthegenepool

Thus,thetrueprobleminanycaseiscollateraldamage.

Hismotherwondershowshewillkeepthehousewarm,foodcooked,andlightsonthroughthecomingwinterfortheboyandhissister,whilemakingsurethattheyhaveenoughtoeat.

AndthatshallbeoneofthethingstogointheUSofA-theideathatonehasa'right'tochildrenyoucannotsupport.

Whatdoyouthink,doesonehavea"right"tochildrentheplanetcannotsupportIdon'tactuallyseehowtherichhaveamoralrighttohavechildreninanoverpopulatedworld,justbecausethey'vemanagedtohoardmoreresourcesthanthepoor.

Iknowthisistheoretical,andyouprobablymeantsomethingrathermorepractical.It'sjustaninterestingquestionfromthepointofviewofmoralphilosophy.

Whatdoyouthink,doesonehavea"right"tochildrentheplanetcannotsupport

ItmattersnotwhatIthinkis'right'-oryou.

Evenifwhat'we'thoughtwasactuallythebestgoshdarnthing,true,right,correctandwhatshouldbedone,therealityis'we':

Existinasystemwhereothershavedeterminedasetofrulesbackedbythingslikemoney,law,socialnorms.Thus-rightnow"lifeisconsideredimportant"(Solongasyouaren'tpoor,adifferentskincolor,inalocationthatpreventsthemorepowerfulfromtakingwhateveritisyouhavethatthemorepowerfulwant,blahblahinsertwhateverinjusticeyousee)

Idon'tactuallyseehowtherichhaveamoralrighttohavechildreninanoverpopulatedworld,justbecausethey'vemanagedtohoardmoreresourcesthanthepoor.

Topic#8:Anoveltacticforpoliticalchange.

Perhapsit'snotsonovel.Humanshaveanamazingabilityto"empathize"--thekeyisthe"context".Thisiseasilyseeninhowtheyarewillingtospendmanythousandsofdollarstosay,saveadeertrappedintheice,onlytokillitnextdeerseason.Again,thekeyisthe"context".

IsuggestaGandhi-type,nonviolentpoliticalmovementwhereordinaryworkingpeopleSURRENDERtotherich.ExplainhowtheeconomicwarisOVER,therichhaveWONtheeconomicwar,andnowOWNandareRESPONSIBLEforAmerica.Facedwithpeakoil,thecommonpeopleSURRENDERandBEGFORMERCY.

Thecommonpeoplewouldpresenttheir"complaint"(e.g.,below)directlytotherichpeople(carrysignsinfrontoftheirmansions),layface-downinthestreet,etc.ThekeyistoprovokeRESPONSIBILITY,EMPATHY,andSYMPATHYoritwon'twork.Iftherichareunabletofeeltheseemotions,thenit'shopeless.

That'sit.That'sallIhave.

Jay

Oncethepoorsurrender,admitdefeatintheclasswar,laydowninfrontofthemansionsofthewealthy,begformercy,etc,thewealthywillsimplygetonthenextaircraftleavingthisimpoverishedlandandheadingfornewelysianfields'overthere'...

Perhapsyoumissedthenewsaboutthehugelinesatpassportoffices

passportlinesarenotforpeoplewantingto'cutandrun'-primarilyitsbecauseyouneedpassporttogetintocountrywhenyoureturnfromCanadasoonsotherewasadelugeofnewpassports.

Irecentlygotanewpassport-waitedinlinethedayofmyflight(pertheirrecommendation)beforeIwenttoIreland-took8hoursandeveryonewasquitestressed.

Abouthalfwereofnon-USorigin,byacursorysample.

Theirdepartingplaneswillcarpet-bombthepooronthewayoutthough.

Thisiswhythepoormustnotadmitdefeatintheclasswar.Mostdon'tknowthey'reinaclasswarandneedtolearnthatfirst.

Educationalmaterial.AtonepointinthishestatesthattheCFRthinksthepopulationneedstobecutinhalf.

theCFRthinksthepopulationneedstobecutinhalf.

Ok......soHOWisthequestion(andinwhattimeframe)

Jay'slistisshutdownforawhilenowsoIdidn'tgetachancetoaskhimthis.ButwhereexactlyaretherichandpowerfulgoingtocutandruntoOnavastlyoverpopulatedplanetwithacollapsingglobalcivilizationthere'snoplacetogo.Youwouldthinktheywouldrealizethatifweallgodowntheygodownwithusandgiveupsomeoftheirwealthtotrytomitigatethecatastrophe.Probablyjustwishfulthinkingbutit'saboutallwecanhopeforatthispoint.

SolarDude,Idontknow'exactlywherealltherichandfamousaregoingtocutandrunto...'But,theBushclanhaspurchasedaverylargeparceloflandinaSouthAmericanlocale...Ibelievethenameofthecountryendswithaguay,likeParaguay,Uraguayorsomesuchplace...Youknow,oneoftheguaysthattookinthewealthyNazis.

Sinceoneofthegoalsofthe'richandfamous'willbetomakeasuccessfulescapefromthebananarepublic(formerlyarichandpowerfulnation)toanundisclosedlocation,Idoubtthattheywillbesplashingnewsoftheirnewdigsonthecoversofthecrapsoldatgrocerystorecheckouts.

Asfarasthenewpassportrequirementsareconcerned...Well,iftheguysthatflewthe9-11attackshadnoproblemaquiringpassportsand/orvisas,whoarethenewpassportrequirementstargetingThe'evangelicalleftbehind'arehopingtobewhiskedtoheavenwhilethe'otherleftbehind'(thosethatwillnotbeabletoaffordgas,food,housingandmedicalcare)arenotgoingtobeabletoaffordpassportsandthecostoftransportationtogetthemtothenewelysianfields...Eveniftheycouldfindacountrythatwouldacceptthem.Howmanycountriesintheworldaresendingoutacallforignorant,unskilled,foolishwannabeimmigrantsthatstoodbywhiletheircountrywasrapedMexicoisprobablygoingtoreceivemorebenefitfromthe'fence'thattheUSisbuildingthanwilltheUS.

Andmypartingmessagetothemwouldbe:"Goodriddance!Don'tletthedoorbangyourbehindonthewayout!"

Seeingtheparasitesatthetopleaveforanotherlocalewouldbethebestthingthateverhappenedtothiscountry.

DuringtheGreatDepressiontheAmericanrichseemtohavesplitontheissueofwealthredistribution.Therewerefactionsandclansthattookthepositionsweassociatewithlibertarianismandfascism,i.e.,donothingorimposeabrutaldictatorshiptoforcethepoortomakeallthesacrificestorestarttheeconomicmachine.TherewereotherfactionsthatworkedwithFDReitheroutofpatriotismormaybefearofrevolution,likefinancierBernardBaruchorTreasurySecretaryHenryMorganthau.

WhatscaresmeisthatIdon'tseeanythingaspositiveasplitoccurringtoday.Thedivisionsamongtherichinthe'30swerecomplex-Ican'tstereotypethembyregionoreventypeoffortune.Thereweresomefamousgenerationalsplits.Henry"ProtocolsofZion"FordwassomistrustedbyFDRthatwhenthewarbeganhesimplyoverthrewhimandputhisgrandsonHenryIIincharge.IsuspectHenry'ssonEdsel,whohadjustdied,wasalsoalotmoreliberal.JFK'sfatherwasprettysoftonHitlerism,whileJFKgotaPulitzerdenouncingthatattitude.GeorgeH.W.Bush'sfatherwascaughttradingwiththeenemy,butBushhimselfflewbravelyinthewar.ItseemsthattheyoungerheirsoftherobberbaronswerealotmoreliberalandalotmorewillingtoacceptinterventionistgovernmentandredistributionratherthantheSamsonOption.

Thistime,Ireallythinkalotofthe"liberal"elitesbehindHillaryaretoofargoneintheircornucopianismtoacceptthatAmericancapitalismhasmisledtheworldintocrisis.AlotoftheyoungerfatcatsareRand-swillingtechno-utopians,aroadthathasgivenussuchinspiringmodelsasAlanGreenspan.

Thereisnodamnleadershiphere.TherichsimplydeterminedthattheyweregoingtodriveAmericawaytotheRightandgetbackalltheprivilegesthattheRockefellersandDupontslostinthe'30s.Theydon'thaveanyotherconceptofAmerica.YouwillnotseeanyoftheseguysdoingthehardworkthatBaruchandotherpublic-spiritedtycoonsperformedduringtheDepressionandWar.Thebestofthebunchwilltrytoinventormarketanewgadgetthatsavesenergy.Themarketistheonlyframeworkofhumanrelationstheyunderstand.

Veryinterestingpost,super390.

Thoughtprovoking...

WorseinalotofwaysforthemostpartthepoliticalmachinehasgottensowarpedintheUSthatwedon'thaveanyyoungleadersreadytoboottheoldguysout.

IfyoujoinoneofthepartiesitsimpossiblenottoplaythegameandindependentshavelittlechanceofsuccessandI'msureanewpoliticalpartywouldfinditselfunderintensescrutiny.

Idon'tmindthecurrentcorruptionitsthefactthattheyseemtohaveironcladcontrolofthewaysthecouldbereplacedthatstroublesome.

ThisispartofwhyIthinkweareseeingsomuchemphasisinlocalizedinitiativesonthepartofpeakoilawarepeople.Alotofushaverealizedthatatleastforthenextfewyears,wemightaswellwriteoffthetopofthepoliticalpeckingorderasworsethanuseless.Bettertobuildupfromthegrassroots.Atthebest,thatmightbuildabetterbaseforatrulyeffectiveandright-thinkingfutureleadertobuildupon.Attheleast,maybewecanmakeourselvesandsomeofourcommunitieslessvulnerabletotheconsequencesofmalign,dysfunctional,andincompetentnationalleadership.

ThekeyistoprovokeRESPONSIBILITY,EMPATHY,andSYMPATHYoritwon'twork.Iftherichareunabletofeeltheseemotions,thenit'shopeless.

IfTHATiswhatyouarecountingupon,thenyouarehopeless,becausetherichareindeedunabletofeelthoseemotions.Responsibility,empathy,andsympathyarenotthepathtoriches.

No,insteadoflookingtotherichandpowerfultosaveusfromourproblems,itisbesttoassumethattheyAREapartoftheproblem.

Violenceagainstthemisnottheanswer,norispleadingformercy;renderingthemasirrelevantaspossiblecertainlyispartoftheanswer.

Peoplewhoarenotrichandpowerfularetheonesthatneedthefeelingsofresponsibility,empathy,andsympathy-foreachother.Peoplewhoarenotrichandpowerfulneedtostartworkingtogetherinaconstructiveandmutuallyhelpfulwaytosolvetheirownproblems.

Aslongaswelooktotherichandpowerfultoprovideallofourneedsandsolveallofourproblems,wegivethempoweroverus,andthusmakethemrich.Theonlywayoutofthisistodenythempoweroverusandtocutofftheircashflow.Thatmeansthatindividualsaregoingtohavetoliveassimply,frugally,andself-sufficientlyastheycan.Theyarealsogoingtohavetoreachouttotheirneighborsandbuildlocalizedcooperativealternativestothecorporateexploiters.

Thattimespentpicketingandpleadingcouldbeputtomoreconstructiveusecreatingacommunitygardenororganizingafoodco-oporaride-sharesystem.

"Therewasatimebeforereasonandsciencewhenmyancestorsbelievedinallmannerofnonsense."NarimonStargateSG-1.

Weshouldstoptreatingthepeoplewhodo,andwhocan'taffordtheirchildren,likevictimsofsomekindofnaturaldisaster.

Ithinkthat'sbeendoneinalotofplaces.ForsomereasonWesterntouristsarenottoofondofthoseplaces,whatwithchildrenbeggingeverywhere,gettingtheirfoodfromdumpstersandlandfillsandgenerallyhavingarathermiserableexistence.Andyet,poorpeoplehavenotstoppedhavingchildren.

Nothelpingoutthelessfortunateisanideathatlibertariansfindappealing,butinpracticeitwouldbeintolerabletocivilizedpeople.InBrazilrichpeoplehirethugstokillstreetchildren,becausetheirsensibilitiesareoffendedbytoomuchvisiblepoverty.That'sonewaytodoit,butIforonefindthispracticeabhorrent.

Nothelpingoutthelessfortunateisanideathatlibertariansfindappealing,butinpracticeitwouldbeintolerabletocivilizedpeople.

Wecansuppressitthroughmechanismsofsocialdisapproval.Drunkdriving,openexpressionsofracismandfightingduelshavealldeclined(exceptamonglowerclassmales)becauseofsocialandlegalsanctionsagainstpeoplecaughtinthisbehavior.Ironically,thechristianrighthelpedtodestigmatizehavingunaffordablekidsthroughtheiranti-abortionobsession.Theydecidedthatwhatweusedtocall"bastardy"lookspreferabletolettingunmarriedwomenterminatetheirpregnancies.

Ironically,thechristianrighthelpedtodestigmatizehavingunaffordablekidsthroughtheiranti-abortionobsession.Theydecidedthatwhatweusedtocall"bastardy"lookspreferabletolettingunmarriedwomenterminatetheirpregnancies.

Ithinkonereasonthechurchwassoagainstbastardywasthattheyusedtobetheoneswhohadtosupportunwantedchildren.Theyrantheorphanages,andsupportedtheindigent.Therearestoriesaboutunwedorwidowedpregnantwomenbeingdrivenoverthebordertothenextparish,sosomeoneelsewouldhavetosupportthem.

Churchesareonceagaintakingoversocialservices.Alotofmyfriendswhoaren'tevenreligiousendedupgoingtoachurchforfoodandhelpwithhousing,jobs,daycare,etc.Churchesaredoingalotofthethingsgovernmentusedtodo.

Iwonderifthey'llchangetheirstanceonceit'sclearwe'reattheMalthusianlimit.Ifirmlybelievethatsocietyshapesreligion,ratherthantheotherwayaround.Afewcenturiesago,sodomywasseenasmoreacceptablethanfornication,becausetherewasnodangerofbastardswithsodomy.Nowit'stheopposite.Thereligionisthesame;it'stheeconomythathaschanged.

Iwonderifthey'llchangetheirstanceonceit'sclearwe'reattheMalthusianlimit.

Personally,Ithinkthefactthatachild'smotherisalwaysknown,whilethefatherisnevercertain,playedamuchlargerrolein'bastardy'thanwhoendeduphavingtodealwiththechildren.

Andsincemenwerenotgoingtostophavingsex,itwasmucheasiertoblamewomenforhavingtheburdenofchildbearing,aspunishmentforEve'sactions.

Patriarchyrunsvery,verydeep-asforinfanticide,lookatwhatinfantsgetkilled.Thoughagain,arguably,thereisacertainbasisinrealitytokillingfemales-bypreventingfuturechildbirths,thepopulationismoreefficientlyreducedovergenerations.Andhavingtheexcessmalesdieinviolentconflictjustmightbeenhancedbyhavingareducednumberoffemalesavailable.(WhichleadstothedisputedtheorythatChinawillchooseviolentconflictasawaytohandlean'excess'malepopulationexceeding40millionmales-roughlythenumberoffemalesmissingduetosuchtechnologyasultrasound.)

Ofcourse,asanesocietywouldprizebirthcontrolforwomenasbeinghighlydesirable,andvastlypreferabletootheralternatives,buttheU.S.seemsfarremovedfromsuchsanity.

Butthatdoesn'texplainwhythechurch'spositiononbastardyhaschangedsomuch.

Thoughagain,arguably,thereisacertainbasisinrealitytokillingfemales-bypreventingfuturechildbirths,thepopulationismoreefficientlyreducedovergenerations.

Yes.Infact,I'dgosofarastosaythatpatriarchyhasprobablyout-competedothermodels,ratherthanbeinganaturalhumanattitude.Preciselybecomecontrolofwomeniscontroloffertility,andbelievingthatmalesaresuperiormakesfemaleinfanticideeasier.

thechurch'spositiononbastardyhaschangedsomuch

But,buttheWordofGodisin-falableandthereforeanypositioncouldnothavechanged!

Afewcenturiesago,sodomywasseenasmoreacceptablethanfornication,becausetherewasnodangerofbastardswithsodomy

Ilearnsomethingonthissiteeveryday...

Well,Nate...

Hatetosaythis,but...

(lightbluetouchpaperandstandback)

Hereissomethingelsenewforyou:

Heterosexualanalsexwasandstillisthepriniciplemethodofbirthcontrolinrepressiveregimesthroughouthistory.

Ifthe'manincharge'hasabeard,orabible,orakoranorauniform,itusuallymeansahardtimeforwomen...

Leanan,'Churchesareonceagaintakingoversocialservices.'Yes,theyare,anditisallpartoftheRepublicanvisionof'anewgildedage,'whereafewpeopleownalmosteverythingandcontrolwhattheydonotown.

Thedearestvisionofthesescoundralsistowipeoutallsocialprogramsanddeclaregovernmentclosedforbusiness...except,ofcourse,fortheircorporatewelfarepals.

Whatmakesyouthinkoncethechurcheshavecapturedthepoor,theywon'ttrainandarm'emandturn'emlooseonthecivilizedworld

JesusCamp,anyone

Children'sCrusade

RobertInTucson

Ihaven'tescapedfromreality.Ihaveadaypass.

Everyonewasallenthusiasticaboutcuttingoffwelfarepaymentstowomenwhohavetoomanykids.Because"weshouldn'tpaypeopletohavekidstheycan'tsupport."Butisn'tofferingtaxdeductionsforchildrenthesamething,onlyforthemiddleclassinsteadofthepoorIt'sfamiliesthatusegovernmentservicesthemost.Theyshouldpaythemost.Instead,peoplewithoutchildren,orwithfewerchildren,subsidizethosewithmore.

NotthatIexpectthistochangeanytimesoon.Nothavingkidsisseenasaproblem,notthesolution.Lookathowothercountriesaretryingtoencouragepeopletohavelargefamilies.Australiawantseveryonetohaveatleastthreekids.AtleastonepoliticianinJapanwantstocutoffsocialsecuritybenefitsforwomenwhodon'thaveatleastonechildintheirlifetime.IsraelworriesaboutbeingoutnumberedbyArabs,andwantsJewishwomentohavelotsofchildren.ManyEuropeancountriesareofferingcashandotherbenefitstopeoplewhohavekids.

Andthenthere'smyacquaintanceinMexicowithtwodaughters-whatluck-who'sgoingtokeepatituntilhehastwosons.Youneedatleastonesonandinhissocialpositionhavingaspareisderigeur.Thisisacommonculturalphenomenonwhichwilltakelongerthanthehalflifeoftheremainingoilsupplytochange.

Wetendtobelievethatwhichthesocietyaroundusbelievesbecausethatisthewayitis.Wedon'tneedareasonforourreasons,justamajority.

EnjoyedtheToledoBladearticleonAdmiralRickover;thx.

Nothavingkidsisseenasaproblem,notthesolution.

Whenonehasaneconomicbasedongrowth,havingmorehumansmeansoneofthe'growthitems'is,well,growing.

AswellasyourpointaboutIsrael'sworries,cheaplabourandlargermarketequatestoabusinessneedforlargerpopulation,thereforelargefamiliesaretendedtobepromotedbygovernment.

Havingalargefamilyisinoppositiontotherealizationbytheindividualthatthebestchance,foranurbanfamily'ssurvival,istohavefewerbettercaredforchildren.

SofarTrumptrumpsinthisdichotomy.(butbyfatheringonlythreechildrentoaddtothelabour/consumerforceIdonotthinkheisaleadingexampleofgoodbusinesspractices,inthisareaatanyrate...Iwouldnotpresumetocommentonhisotherbusinesspractices:)

Thisisaninterestingpoint-inGermany,peopleofworkingageareconsideredtobethosethatpaytaxes,andthosewhoarenotworkingagecannotnotpossiblydrawmoredownintaxrevenuethaniscreatedbythoseofworkingage.

Whichiswhytheemphasisonensuringenoughworkingagepeopletopaytaxes.

ThoughstillessentiallyPonzischemethinking,itisalsotechnicallycorrect-afterall,thechildrenweeducatetodaywillbeproductivefordecades.OratleastthatistrueinGermany,whereanumberofyoungpeople'seducationisbasedonconcreteactivities.Germanystillmanufacturesthings,bothhightechandverymuchlessso-forexample,someroofframesarestillbuiltusingapeggedmethod-notoolmoreadvancedthanaxes,saws,etc.requiredforaroofthatwilllastdecades.Andforestgenerallysurroundtowns,thereisgenerallyalocalsawmill,etc.Longtermthinkinginaction,forcenturiesatthispoint.

Longtermplanningishard,andoftenrequiresbothabroadperspective,anddiscipline.

ThoughthereismuchaboutthedetailsinGermanyofhowthestateviewschildrearingwhichremainforeigntome,thefundamentalideathatsocietyiscomposedofallitsmembers,fromtheyoungesttotheoldest,issomehowreassuring.Thoughcommunityisnotthecorrectwordforit,thissenseofthelongtermissorelylackinginAmerica,asisthesimpleawarenessofcontinuityinhumanaffairs-weallwereborn,wewillalldie,andyes,thedetailsinbetweenarenotmerelychance.

Atleastinsomecultures,childrenareseenasaninvestment,andnotacost.ItisstrikingtowhatextentAmericansseeotherpeople'schildrenasaburden-thishasnevermademuchsensetome,becausethe'cost'inacountrylikeGermanyorJapanismultipleshigherthanintheU.S.Ofcourse,pickingtwooftheworld'sleadingindustrialeconomiesmightnotjustbeacoincidence-andinbothcases,theirindustrialeconomiesweredestroyedasaresultofattemptingtograbresourceswithoutregardtolaworlongtermcosts.Andthoseeconomieswererebuiltusingtheonlyinvestmentthatactuallymatters-themselves.

Americaisgoingtofractureinawelterofcontradictionsandfantasy.

Leanan-discouragingchildbirthamongthepoorwhilesubsidizingitamongthemiddle-classandrichisjustanotherexampleoftheSocialDarwinismtheUSpoliticalsystemisbasedon.

I'dalmostbeinfavorofitexcept......mostmothersonWelfaredon'thavemorekidswhileonWelfare,areonlyonWelfareforafewyears,andenduponWelfareduetothehighstressoftryingtosurviveasapoorpersonintheUSsansthingsmothersintheFirstWorldtakeforgrantedsuchasprenatalandpost-natalcare,universalhealthcare,abasicstandardofhomeheatingandfood,etc.

Iwasoneofthosekids-imaginenexttonobodyfatandshivering,inHawaii'swarmclimate.Imagineneedingglassesfromabouttheageof8orso,andnotgettingthemuntilIwas18.IfIwereinSweden,hellifIwereinBulgaria,thebasiccarewouldhavebeenbetter.

Sure,youSocialDarwinistsoutthere,enactalaw;sterilizeWelfaremothers.Youwon'tdecreasethenumberof"Welfarekids"bymuchbecauseWelfaremomstendtobedonewiththeirchildbearing.JustasintheGreatDepression,peopledon'thavemorekidswhentimesarereallyhard.PeoplehavekidswhentheyhavehopeandthinkthingswillbeOK.Theyneverseeitcoming,findingthemselvesonWelfareyearslater.

Nothavingkidsisseenasaproblem,notthesolution.Lookathowothercountriesaretryingtoencouragepeopletohavelargefamilies.Australiawantseveryonetohaveatleastthreekids.AtleastonepoliticianinJapanwantstocutoffsocialsecuritybenefitsforwomenwhodon'thaveatleastonechildintheirlifetime.IsraelworriesaboutbeingoutnumberedbyArabs,andwantsJewishwomentohavelotsofchildren.ManyEuropeancountriesareofferingcashandotherbenefitstopeoplewhohavekids.

Andnoneofthisseemstohaveanyeffectasbirthratesinalltheseplaceskeepdropping.Infactbirthrateseverywherearedropping.

EverywhereI'dliketothinkso.Certainlyisthecaseinmany/mostdevelopedcountries,buteverywhere

Reducingbirthratesseemstometobeoneofthebestthingswecandofortheplanet.

Yes,theyaredropping...butthereasonstheyaredroppingarelikelytounwindinthepost-carbonage.

Ifyou'restillreadingthis...

Birthratesarenotdropping"everywhere".Ididabitofchecking.

Birthratesarerisinginmany,mostlyAfricancountries,butafewotherplacesaswell.

Worldwide,birthratesaredroppingabit.

Birthratesseemtobefallingdueto:1)Thetransitionfromruraltourbanlifestyle,2)Theeducationofwomen,3)Theincreasedpoliticalpowerofwomen,4)Theincreasedavailabilityofbirthcontrolmethods.

Now,ifyou'revisionofthepost-carbonageisareturntocavesandmenwhackingwomenovertheheadwithclubs,draggingthemofftobreed,thenthat'syourvision.

Certainlynotmine.

Itsverysimple..thosewhohavemorechildrenreceivemorewelfarebenefits.

Asinglemotherhasahugenumbertochosefrom.

Sotheideais..getmarried(reallynotaprerequisite),haveachild,getdivorcedbutletthefatherstayinthehouse,applyformanyoftheavailablebenefitpackages.

Havemorechildren,,howevertheywish.Applyagainandthenofcourseifyourchilddoesbadinschool..wellthenapplyfordisabilityandsignupasthe'care'giverandquityourdayjob,ifyoueverhadoneandthenyougetpaidforbeingthe'caregiver'aswellasthechilds.....soonandsoforth.

Iknowmanywhodoexactlythis.NotonlythattheygetaMedicaidcardthattakesofallthemedicalbills,,asopposedtomypooronewhichcostsmearound$500/month.

Sothestreetsreallyare'pavedwithgold'here.

airdale-noIdon'tlistentothefatguy(limbaugh).NoIamnotofthedisloyalchristainzealotsbutIdobelievethattheapocalyseisapproaching..sincethatsoneofthemaintopicshereonTOD..naturally...andmustwespeakof"TheTribulation"No,forwewillhavesometypeofitfersure.

PS.Mysontheaccountantwasoncetaskedwithauditingallthewelfarebenefitsformotherswithchild..hethrewhishandsupintheend.Mydaughterisamasteratfindingtheseplansandapplyingforthem.Sheknewofthembeforeitevenhitthelocaloffices.SoIhavenoreferences..justpersonalexperience..andseeingwhousesthosefunnydebitcardsinthegrocerystoreandwonderinghowtheirhubbycanbeondisabilityandyetbuilding(byhimself)hisownhouse!Andhaulinghayandwhateverelsehewantstodo.Iseenhimthrowsomeofmy55lbsquarebalestothetopofthepickupload,whenhegotthatchild'sponywhichhekeptinhisgarageandhadthemostseverecaseoflaminitisIhadseeninquietawhile.HeaskedmetoshoeitandIlaughedinhisface.

HowrightyouareAirdale.Igotoneofthosefamilyslivingrightdowntheroadfromme.I'mretiredandstillpaytaxes(fed.income)whilehegetsadiscountonhiselectricbillandthestatepayshispropanebill.nottomentiontherestofthebenefits.

"youcancureignorance,butyoucaneducatestupitidy"theoldhermit

Youcomeacrossasquiteabitterandunhappypersonairdale,Ihavetosay.

Cargill,

BitterandunhappyThenyoudon'treadanyofmyposts.

Iamcompletelyhappybecauseforonceinmylife(stillmarriedfor46yrs)Iamtotallyinchargeofmylifeandlifestyleandnolongersupportinganyone.

ButIamdoingitonfixedincome..mycompaniespensionandSS.Thatsnotalot...atonetimeitwasworthmorebutinflationisrippinghelloutofit.

ButIamonmyownlandthatIownfreeandclearandhavealmostnoloans,,justone.Andasmallishamountononecreditcard.

Igetbyokthen..butitangersmetoseethosewhocontributedzerotothesystemthenbleedthesystembecausetheycan..justbecausetheycangetbywithit.

Ihavestartedanewgarden,frozealotofcorn,savedalotofopenpollenontheear,havemanylbsofpurplehulledpeasfromthegarden..lotsmore....

IridemyHarleybikeandget50mpgandhaveaJeepforthefarmandoutback.

Mydaughterhappenstobealeechofsocietyandthatsaddensmenoend...butIwasnotgivenallowancetohelpraiseher...itwasmywifewhomadeherwhatsheis..andnowsheisaaviddefiantfeministandhasbeenformanyyears.Shemakesmeherenemy.

YetIletallthatgounderthebridge.Ihaveabigcircleofkinfolk...........well..yadayadayada.....likeIsaid...youdon'treadmypostssoIamjustgoingtocallyoutotallyuninformedandaone-linehipshooter.

airdale-doingithisway,,thebestwayIlivewhereIwasbornandraised,Ilookforwardtoeachday.Notraffic,notrafficlights,knoweverybody,deerareallovertheplace,Ieatlocalcaughtfishoneaweekandbbqalotoftheother.NoTVeithersocallmesadisticthen!!!Iprobablyreadmoreinayearthanyoumightin10years.Checkmybio...beforeyoujudgeme

Luckilythere'snoreasontofreezeevenifit'scold.Onesimplyneedstodressfortheoccation.

WhenIwasaninfantmymotherwouldletmetakemydailynapsoutsidethehouseinanytemperature:thetrickistoapplyapieceofancienttechnologyknownastheblanket.Theblanketissimplywrappedaroundand/orlaidontopofthechild'sbody,therebyretainingtheheat.Asuitofwoolenbabyclothes,andawoolencapforthebaby'sheadisalsorequired.Ifthetemperatureisespeciallylowonecanaddmorelayersofblanketandotherpiecesofclothing,againpreferablymadeoutofwool.

Mypointisthatit'sprobablyaculturalthingifpeoplefreeze,mainlytheydon'tknowhowtodressproperlyfortheclimatetheyfindthemselvesin,ortheydon'tthinkofsimplethingslikeclosingthedoortoroomsthatarenotinuse.Abedroomforinstancedoesn'tneedheatingifyousleepunderathickblanket.Thehousetheyliveinmayalsonotbeadaptedtolocalconditions,thestylemayhavebeencopiedfromsomewherecompletelydifferentwithoutathoughttowardshoweasyitwouldbetokeepcomfortablywarm/cool.

GrowingupIrememberweonlyheatedthekitchenandlivingroomaswellasthebathroomduringthewinter,itjustwasn'tpossibletoheatthewholehousewithawoodstovesowechosetohaveacoupleofwarmroomsandmostlyonlyspenttimeinthebedroomswhilesleeping.Akindoftriageifyouwill.Naturallythewholefamilyclusteredinthewarmrooms,ifyouwantedtospendtimeinotherpartsofthehouseyouneededatleastawoolensweaterandsocks.Afterespeciallycoldnightsthecat'swaterbowlwouldhaveathinlayeroficeontopinthemorning:)

WakingupinthemorningIwouldspendafewminutesmentallypreparingbeforejumpingoutofbed,grabbingmyclothes,andrushingdownstairstodressinthewarmcomfortablebathroom.Thatisifnoneofmysiblingsgottherefirst,inwichcaseIwoulddressinthehallway.Mymothergotupfirstandlightingthestovewouldhavebeenthefirstthingshedid,butsincebothmyparentswereworking,andtheonlyelectricalheatwasinthebathroom,thehousewouldbeprettychillywhenIgotbackfromschoolintheafternoon.Afterrelightingthefireitsoonbecamecomfortableagain.

Ihavebeenreadingvariousthingsaboutthetimesbeforecentralheating.Peoplehaddifferentwaysofcopingandstayingwarminthewinter.Forexample,canopybedswereoriginallydesignedtohelpretainheat.Andforthatmatterthe"night-cap"wasanitemofclothing-acapyouwearatnighttominimizeheatlossthroughtheskull.

Peoplehaddifferentwaysofcopingandstayingwarminthewinter.

Themodernsleepingbagtechisgreat.Plentyofwebsitesdedicatedto'campinginthesnow'-looktothemforgreathints.

Itisanamazingextravagancetoheat2,000squarefeetwhenyoureallyonlyneedabout12squarefeettobeniceandwarm.Theupstairshereinconsistentlyinthelowsixtiesexceptforthisroom,whichgrowscomfortablywarmwithjustmeandmylittleMacMiniheatingitaslongasIkeepthedoorclosed.

Onereasonwhyolderhomestendedtobe2-storywasthatheatrises.Onewouldloadupthewoodstovewithlogsandturndownthedamperbeforegoingtobed.Bymorningyouwouldbedowntojustthelastofthecoals,andthedownstairswouldbeprettychilly,butallthatheatwouldhavemadeitswayupstairstothebedroomsovernight.

Ranchhouseswereoriginallydesignedforthehotandaridsouthwest,wheretheproblemwascooling,notheating.Rippingoffthedesignandbuildingiteverywhereinthecountry,nomatterhowfrigid,isjustonemoreincrediblystupidideaforwhichwewillbepayingafrightfulprice.

Bytheway,that2-story2000sffarmhousemighthavehousedanywherefromsixtotwelvepeople.Now,a2000sfhousewillrarelyhousemorethanthreepeople,oftenonlytwoorevenone.

I'vealwaysdressedappropriately(i.e.,warmly)inthewinterandkepttheinteriortemperaturelow.Thethingthatalwaysdrivesmecrazyisdressingappropriatelyfortheseasonandthenwalkingintoabuildingwheretheyhavetheheatturnedupto74orsomething(witheveryonewalkingaroundinT-shirts).TheonegoodthingaboutpeakoilisthatIhopewhileIamstillalivetoseethenendofthatparticularbehavior.

OnyesterdaysDrumBeat(Oct20)IpostedareplytoTontoneila'svaluablecommentontheusageandlackofNitrogen.

Hereisasampleofmyreplyforthoseinterested:

"Perennialandforagelegumes,suchasalfalfa,sweetclover,truecloversandvetches,mayfix250-500lbsofnitrogenperacre."

Textbelowwasnotpartofthe20thDB.Itismyfurtherviewsonthesubject.

Myexperiencehasbeenwithhairyvetchanditsveryvaluableroleasanitrogenfixerandasaconservationplant.Mygoalistohaveadoublesizedgardenandplantvetchon1/2..thenswitchingthegrowinghalfeachyearafterthewinterdiedownandreturnoftheNtothesoil.

ThereisthereforelittleneedtobuycommercialN..theoldtimersknewthisandseededmylandwithhairyvetchontheirtobaccoplots..andlateritwasspreadalloverthefarm..clearcuttingofhayresultedinmostofitbeingeliminated..soIwillsavealltheseedandrestartitsgrowthasbefore..inlieuofgrassandandothercovers,suchasorchardgrassthatIoncegrewforahaycrop.

airdale-wejustneedtoreturntothemethodsthatworkedinthepastinsteadofgnawingournailsandworrying.Weneedtobewiseraboutthisandstoplookingforsometechnofixthatmightormightnotbeworkable.Allthiswasknownsometimebackandpracticedbutsomeoneupsetthehelloutoffarming..Butzperhaps.

PS.Notethatcrownvetchwasoncesowedbythehighwaydeptsalongroadsides...apparentlythiswaseschewedinfavorofhighmaintenance'lawns'.Youcanseefindadabortwoofitinsomeplaces.BTWcattlelovesercialespedezawhichIbelievetobealegumeandwasalsoonceplantedprofuselyalongroadwaysbutIdon'tseemuchanymore.IusedtobaleitwhereIfounditalongwithotherlespedezavarietiesthatcomeupvolunteerbutnowarerecedingwithmoreintensivegraincropsandherbicides.

Ihadasimilarplaninmindandwantedtoplanthairyvetchonourhill-Iboughtcrownvetchseedbymistake-isthereabigdifference(Iamlearningaboutthesethingssoforgiveifthisisignorantquestion)

Govisitthethreadfromyesterday-you'llfindlinkstobettersourcesthanaguywhothinksHydrinosaregonnasaveus.

eric,eric,eric....whatisonetodowithyou:)

Thenormalresponseistothankmeformyefforts.

Soyouarewelcome.

WellgollyEricBlair,Idon'tknowaboutthis,butI'llgiveitatry:

"Thankyouericbleeewwweeettt!!!Oohthatsmarts!!!"

TheyreallydothatIknewtherewassomekinkystuffhappeningonthischannel.

thereisabroadspectrumof'saving'.Some(likeme)justwanttoenjoylifeirrespectiveofwhichpathisheadingtheirway.Iusedtotradestocksandcompetedonthatlevel-Inowknowthatthebargetshighereveryyearsoprefertolearnaboutand'compete'byhairyvetchandsimilarpursuits.Idonotclaimthatanygardeningtechniqueorpastimewill'save'anyone-butsomeofthesethingsaresustainable,educationalandpleasurabletopursue.

Nate,

ForgetErictheBlare..gotothewebsiteImentioned..itshasexcellentwriteups..

Hereisafinerresolutiononthepdf.cahe.nmsu.edu/pubs/a/a-129.pdf

Crownvetchhassmallfloweretsatitstopsandappearstobemoreleafy.Hairyisjustlikethenameimplies..itssortalikeabiggerversionofHummingbirdvine..smallleafsthatmoveallovertheplace..andcoverthebaregroundverywell..theninthefallbreaksdowntothesurfaceandformsaverynicesurface..morelikeyouhadthrownhayorstrawovertheground..itsnottoughandthevinesaresmallandcanbeeasilydiskeduptosmallerportions..howatillerwouldworkonitIamnotsure.

Butifyouwereorganicthenonecouldjustpullawaytherowareas..alsoitseasytodiscouragethegrowthbyjustpullingupthenewgrowth..yettheseedsifallowedtofallwillensurethatyouwillalwayshavefuturegrowth..whereitismowedittendstodisappear...sonotthatinvasive.

WeneedarealsolutiontooneoftheN,P,Ktriumverateandthisisagoodsolution.IttakesNfromtheair,,fixesitandretainsitinitplantandthereforeispossibletobemovedsomedistance..onecouldenvisionbalingitupbeforethegrowthdiesinthefall,,thenbarteringitforfertlizer..inthesquarebalethatis.

IMOitsanallaroundgoodsolutiontohomegardening...

Theseedsarenottoodifficulttogleanbyhand..orjustpulltheplantandtakeittoyourgarden,throwonthesoilandletnaturetakeitscourse.

airdale

Iboughtcrownvetchseedbymistake-isthereabigdifference

No,allvetchesarelegumesandthereforefixnitrogeninthesoil.Theymakeexcellentwintercovercrops.HairyvetchismorewinterhardythancrownvetchIbelievesowouldbeabetterchoiceforacolderclimate.

Actuallyyouarequitewrongaboutbothissues.

LegumesvaryconsiderablyintheamountofNtheyfix.Iyouhaveevenreadthearticleyoumighthavefoundthatout.

Rightnowitsthe21stofOctoberandwehaven'tasyethadakillingfrostyetIjusttodayfinishedperusingmanyareasofmyfarmanddidn'tfindasinglehairyvetchplant..theyhavedisappearedalready.Theyareeasytospotalsol

AstomorewinterhardythanhairyMethinksnot.YetIcouldbeatadwrongonthatsinceIdon'thavethetimetoproveyourcontentionwrong.Ijustknowthatallthehairyvetchisnolongervisibleasgreenfoliage.Heckthetreeshaven'teventurnedhere.

TheydoNOTmakewintercovercrops.TheydoiftheyarealreadythereanddiedbackwiththefallweatherbutunlessyoushowmevalidproofIamnotbuyingyourstatements.

DoyougrowitDoesitgrowwildonyourplaceDoyouhaveaplace/farmWhatareaofthecountryIsitstillviablerightnowonyourplace

Idon'tknowitsrangebutIwillcheckitoutnowandwillofferanapologyifIamwrongandexpectyoutoifIamrightandyourwrong...orjustforgetit.

Iamnotsayingthathairyvetchproduces250lbsofNperacre..somenitrogenfixingplantsdo..accordingtothearticleIlinkedto.

Howeverallthatbeingsaid...mysignificantpointwastheusageofnfixingplantstooffsetalltheneedsforcommercialfertilizer...getit

PS.Hereisadirectcutandpastefromthepdf:

"Somelegumesarebetteratfixingnitrogenthanothers.Commonbeansarepoorfixers(lessthan50lbsperacre)andfixlessthantheirnitrogenneeds.MaximumeconomicyieldforbeansinNewMexicorequiresanadditional30-50lbsoffertilizernitrogenperacre.However,ifbeansarenotnodu-lated,yieldsoftenremainlow,regardlessoftheamountofnitrogenapplied.Nodulesapparentlyhelptheplantusefertilizernitrogenefficiently.Othergrainlegumes,suchaspeanuts,cow-peas,soybeansandfaba,beansaregoodnitrogenfixersandwillfixalloftheirnitrogenneedsotherthanthatabsorbedfromthesoil.Theselegumesmayfixupto250lbsofnitrogenperacreandarenotusuallyfertilized."

MinnesotaDNRconsiderscrownvetchtobea"seriousinvaderofnativeprairieandsanddunes"andtheyoffermeasuresofcontrol.Myguessisthatitmustbeprettyhardytowithstandthesewinters.

IhavenotseenitinvadebutIhaveonlyobserveditoninterstatehighwayswhereitwasverygoodatholdingslopes.

Ihaveneverseenitusedinfarming.

SericaLepsedezawasoncefavoredforroadwayplantingaswellbutdon'tseethateitherhoweveritmakesagoodgrazingplantbutfixesverylittleN.

JohnsonGrassholdsthechampionshipcupIMOforinvasive.ThatanCanadian'noddingthistle'arethetwoandonlytwo(thatIknowof)actuallylabeledas'noxious'bythestateofKy.

JohnsonGrasscancrowdoutothergrassinveryshortorder..itspoisontocattleafterafrost..itstoughtokillout.Somefoolsthinktofeedittocattleashaybuttheyareonlyspreadingtheseeds.

HogsarethebestkillerofJohnsonGrassasaremulesinapasture.Cattlewillturntheirnosesupatitonceitstarts'headingout'.Idobelievethatacowcandieeatingjohnsongrassashay..duetolackoffoodvaluethattheyeatsomuch...IhaveseencowremainsinthewoodsbackinMissouriandtheirstomachswerefullofsometypeofgrass..goodorchardgrassandcloverlikeIbaledcantestoutat12%protein,ifcutandbaledright.

Myguessisthatitmustbeprettyhardytowithstandthesewinters

Onlytheseedshavetobe.

I'vecreatedseveralsmall'yards'inpeatsoilwithpeasandbeansgrowingalongthechickenwirefence.Themiddleofeachyardisemptyexceptforacompostlayer.OnlocalShowDayOctober27(atLat43south)weplantcorn.That'sallthenitrogenthecornwillgetiecompostandcloseproximitytolegumes.Worksformebutitobviouslywon'tfeedbillions.

Worksformebutitobviouslywon'tfeedbillions.

ThenitrogenpartoftheGreenRevolutionendingmeetsFarmerswhoarepaidlowprices,providingveggiestofeedtomeatanimals,soilsbeingdepleted,andcroplandbeingusedtogrowfuels.

Ohandletsnotforgetthenatureoffarmlabor-longhoursanddangerousmachinery.

Yea.....howdoesthisendwellagain

Another'Biketoberfest'iswindingdownintheCentralFloridaarea.Biketoberfestisagatheringofafewhundredthousandbikersthat,forthelargepart,trailertheirmotorcyclestothisareaandthenridethemfrombartobarandtospecialevents,mostlylargeoutdoorconcerts,inordertoseeandbeseen.Thisevent,andotherslikeit,areahugewasteoffuel,butnomoresothanraceevents,innumerableconventions,etc.

ThisyearInoticedasmallercrowdofbikersandpurchasesweredownoverlastyear...andlastyearwasnotallthatgreat.NASCARslatestfinancialstatementandearningsreportindicatedthatthecompanywaswaydownyearoveryear,quarteroverquarter,anywayyouwanttosliceit.Twentyyearsago6-8NASCARfanswouldchipin,buyanoldschoolbus,doaminimalfixuptogiveitthebarenecessities,anddriveittoafewracesperyear.Theypurchasedcheapinfieldticketsandwatchedtheracefromlawnchairsatoptheirconvertedschoolbus.Nowtheinfieldticketsarenotcheap,Iseeveryexpensivemotorhomes...notconvertedschoolbuses,andthe'fans'payhugefuelbillstogetthosemotorhomefromhometotrack.

IbelievethatcertainsegmentsoftheUSeconomyaredefinitelyseeingdemanddestructionofFF.

IthinksoalsoRiver.Iknowpeoplethatdidnottaketheirboatstothelakethissummerforfishingbecauseofhighfuelcosts.Onehasbeentryingtosellhisboatforabitoverayear.Noonehasevencalledonit.

Ican'tfinditnow-butmemorysaysthatPresidentCartersoughtabanonrecreationalboatingandthatproposalgotthe(stillstanding)recordforhatemailtoTheWhiteHouse.

Talkaboutanunsustainablecity,CentralFloridai.e.Orlandoisunsustainablenownevermindin2015.Theroadsareovercrowded,50and441arealwaysbusyandI4isoverwhelmedandunderfunded.Althoughofhelp,thetollroadsi.e.EastWestexpresswayandtheironicallynamedgreenwaycanbebackedupaswell,therearealotofnewtollrodprojectsthataregoingintheyarenotsomuchrelievingthecongestionaspromotingsprawl.

TheOrlandoLynxpublictransportationisajoke,itisabusbasedsystemusingthehubandspokemethod,sotogetanywhereyouhavetoplanalongtrip,firstridetothedowntownstationtotransfertoanotherbus,therearewholeneighborhoodswithnoservice,andifthereisaclosebybusmanytimesitentailscrossingabusyhighway,usuallywithoutasidewalk,togettoevenifthereisacrosswalkusuallythecarsmakingrightturnsonredwillcomeatyouwithnoregardforapedestrian,itisactuallysafertocrossinthemiddleofthestreetawayfromthecrosswalksoyoucanseewhatiscomingatyouandthereisvirtuallynoweekendservice,thisinacitywithaserviceindustrybasedworkforce.Andmanyroutesrunonanhourlyschedule,whichisarealpainwhenyouneedtotransfer.AlsothereisaloomingwatershortagesomewellsinTampaarealreadyinfusedwithsaltwatersotheyhavetolookeastwardandtheykeeponbuilding,theyevenallowbuildinginthegreenswampwhichisthemainrechargeforthecentralFloridaaquifer.

Travelingbyfootorbikeisdangeroustherearefewsidewalksorbikepaths,andwherethesidewalksexisthalfthetimetheystopatagullyorretainingpond.Alsoasaresultofthelackofbikersafetyontheroadsthesidewalkshavebecomede-factobikepathsandpedestriansare,whenonthem,areindangerofbeingrunoverbyabicyclist.Inthecaseofofficialbikepathstheyarenothingmorethanlinesinthestreets,theyeitherendrandomlyoratabusyintersectionwhenthereisabikedriversaresounusedtothemtheyeitherdrivetoclosetothebikeortheycrosstotheotherlanewhichisquitedangerouswhenthatisanoncomingtrafficlane.Towalkacrossallbutthequietestculdesacisadangerousactivity.Parkinglotsarenosafer.

Theeconomyisstillheavilydependentupontourism.IfthethemeparksstarttosufferbecauseofPOthewholeareawillgointoarecessionorworse.

Alsowithoutactheplacewouldbeunlivableinthesummer,thehousingstockisalmostalllessthan25yearsoldandwasdesignedforcentralair,loseyouacandthehousewilltakeacoupleofdaystobelivableevenatnight.Astheareaisflatthesewageisnotmovedanywherebygravityithastobepumpedaround,withoutpowerthesystemwouldquicklybackupandforthosewithsepticwithoutpumpsworkingtheiryardswouldbecomebubblingopensewers.Thiswouldbeinadditiontobeingquitenauseatingahealthcrises.Afewbrownouts(inmorewaysthanone)andtherewillbeafloodawayfromtheplace.

AsidefromtheenormousLDSChurchownedcattleranchbetweenOrlandoandcocoamostofthelocalagriculturelandisbeingusedtogrowpinetrees,thiskeepstheagriculturalassessmentbutdoeslittletofeedfolks.CertainlynotenoughtofeedthealmosttwomillionpeopleinLakeOrangeSeminoleandOsceolacounties.

BaseduponanymeasureofsustainabilityCentralFloridaisunsustainable,Isuspectthatbecauseofitsrunawaydevelopment,serviceindustryeconomy,cardependentlifestyle,poorplaningandinadequateinfrastructureitwillbeoneofthefirstcasualtiesofPOintheUS.

Thieveshavestolengroundwiresfrom5,000to10,000utilitypolesthroughoutthestateownedbyelectricutilityWestarEnergy.WestarcorporatespokeswomanKarlaOlsonsaiditcostsabout$100apoletoreplacethewires.

"Wearenowreplacinggroundwireswithsteelwirecoatedwithcopper,whichwon'tbringasmuchinasalvageyard,"shesaid."We'rehopingthatdiscouragesthieves."

ThisisactuallybecomingamajorissueouthereintheSeattlearea.Thereareaconstantflowofnewsstoriesaboutcoppertheftsfromconstructionsitesthathaveescalatedintotheftsofwirefromlivecircuitsonhighwaylightinganddigitaldisplays.

AgoodexampleisacoupleweeksagowhenweweregettingthefirstdecentsnowconditionsoftheseasonupoverSnoqualmiePass(whereI-90crossestheCascaderange)atleastoneofthedigitalmessageboardsalertingdriversfailedtoactivate.Itturnedoutthatthestatehadtogoreplaceallofthewireleadingfromthecontrolboxtothesign.

DanielAerospaceEngineerEverett,Washington-Cascadia

Ididn'tseeanycitiesonthatlistIwanttosave.

Iftherearemilestonesonthepathtoarcticmelting,thisshouldcertainlybeone.

Thisgraphistreallystartling.IsthereanysimilargraphavailablewhichshowstheicedevelopmentsouroundingAntarctica

Leanan'slinkabove,"Insight'sresalevalueabadsignforhybrids"

Substrate,

ThethingthatbothersmeaboutthisarticleisthatittakesthecircumstanceoftheInsight,alowvolume,limitedmarketvehicleandextrapolatesit'sresalevaluetoallhybrids.

ClearlytheInsightisnotforeverybody,itneverhadthemarkettheCivicdid/doesandIthinkitisalittlelessthanhonesttoexpecttheresalevalueoftheonetobethesamepercentageoftheinitialpriceastheother.ThehybridcarsegmentoftheindustryhasbeenhitanumberoftimesIthinkwiththiskindofslight.

Myofficialdisclaimer:IownanInsight.Itworksgreatforme,itgetsmeandmybriefcasetoworkandbackhomeeverydaywarmanddryonverylittlegas(generally60mpgonmycommutewiththeautomatictransmission).That'sallIneed.WhatIwantedwhenIboughtitwasthebestcartoweatherthecomingofpeakoil.Thepricewaswellwithinmybudget,andIgotsomethingotherthananordinarycar.It'snicetoget600milesonatankofgastoo!WhenpartsarenolongeravailableIfigureitisagreatcarforconversiontoallelectric.

FinallytherealironyinseeingthisarticletodayisthatjustyesterdaysomebodycameuptomeinaparkinglotandaskedifIwouldbeinterestedinsellingmyInsight.Lol,Idon'tthinkso.

PS:haveyoutriedgoingtoInsightcentral.net

"PS:haveyoutriedgoingtoInsightcentral.net"

I'verunacrossthesitebefore,usuallywhenIgoonanaerodynamiclearningbingeI'llstumbleonit.Theyusedalotoflittletrickstomakeitslick.Whatontheredoyouwantmetosee

IlovethewheelpantsofftheInsight,it'saneatcar-prettymuchhowmostcarsshouldbemade,buttheyfouledupthecargospacewithbatteryplacementanditcouldreallyuseathirdseat.IdriveaCRXnow,andit'ssuperrarethatIneedtotakethreeotherpeople,buttwoiscommonsoIeitherhavetotakesomeoneelse'scar,orofferupthecargo-flap-seat-looking-thing(norearseatseatbeltlawsinthisstate).

Asforresale(andinitialsaleforthatmatter)ithadsomeseriousthingsgoingagainstitthatwouldsubmarineanycar,andlikeyousaymakesusingitasacomparisonforallhybridsprettymuchstupid.#1isthatitonlyhastwoseats#1.5it'snotevenasportscar.Thataloneisenoughtokillthevastmajorityofcarbuyersenthusiasm.#2isthatthecargospaceisseverlylimited.ThosetwothingsprettymuchbombedtheCRXtoo-buttheCRXatleasthadthesportscarthinggoingforit.

Anywayifyouwanttobashthearticlewithouteventouchingit'smisleadingnature:

Pricesforaused2000Insightinaverageconditionwith100,000milesandtheoptionalautomaticclimatecontrolandCDplayerstartat$5,260.That'sabout25percentofitspricewhennew.

Forcomparison,asimilarlyequipped2000Civicsi--asportygasoline-poweredcoupethat'sabitbiggerthantheInsight--nowsellsfor$5,614,or31percentofitsoriginalprice.

100,000miCivicSi-(100,000mi/30mpg)*$2.25/gal=$7,500Insight-(100,000mi/60mpg)*$2.25/gal=$3,750

A$3,750difference!Now,forsomethingtoutedforhavingthehighestfueleconomyofaproductionvehicle,thatwasahellofanomission.Justforfun,rollthatintotheresalevalueandseewhatitlookslike...CivicSi-$5,614Insight-$9,010

Obviouslycookingthebooks,butitatleastbringsitbacktoequilibriumorbetter.However,itshouldbenotedthattheSihasdecentcargospaceandspaceforatleasttwoadultsintheback,soit'snotthebestcomparisontobeuseanyway.

Iwonderhowmuchtheycouldhaveshavedoffthepriceifthey'd'vegonewithaconventionalsteelbodyinsteadofthealuminum.ItmighthaveslaughteredthecityFE,butnotsomuchthehighwayFE.Itwouldalsohavebeencoolforthemtohavehadanon-hybriddieseloption.

Substrate,onecanstillvisitthe'EbayMotors'website,andothers,andfindusedVWDieselJettas,Rabbitsandpickupsforsalecheap.Thesevehicleswillreturncloseto50mpgandlotsofpartsforthemarestillreadilyavailable.Withaproperrebuildandbasicmaintenancethesevehicleswillrunforhundredsofthousandsofmiles...Farmoremilesthanfuelforthemwillbeavailable...imho.

HelloTODers,

Thecultureofyeast;themadnessofcrowds;thetragedyofthecommons:

WASHINGTON(MarketWatch)--Theworld'sbiggestbankerssaidSundaytheirgreedmadethempowerlesstopreventthetrainwreckincreditmarkets,eventhoughtheyrecognizedthatmarketsweren'tpricingtheriskofsubprimedefaultappropriately.

Thebanksknewthedangersofbuyingandsellingsecuritiesthatwereuntetheredtoreality,buthadtokeepbuyingandsellingthembecauseofthepressuretokeepprofitsgrowing,thebankerssaid.--------------------------BobShawinPhx,AzAreHumansSmarterthanYeast

PeopleseemtoworryaboutHawaiialotregardingsustainability,Iguessbecausewell,it'san"island"(actuallyislands)andEasterIslandis,andthere'sthatTVshowwherepeoplearetryingnottoget"kickedofftheisland"too.

ButOahu,themostcrowdedHawaiianislandbyfar,isthemostsustainableplaceIhaveseeninmylife.

IhavenotseenanyplaceontheMainlandUSpersonallythatcouldevencomeclose.GrantedIhavenottraveledtoalotofmainlandUSplacesthatareprobablyverysustainable,butnothingIhaveseenmatchesthesheerbountyinevenrelativelyurbanareasontheislandofOahu.

Youcangrowalotofcropsinabackyardthere,there'snolackofwater,lotsofsealifeandmostareashavelesspeoplelivinginthemthantheyhad100yearsago.I'dassumeinarealeconomiccrashagoodnumberofpeoplewillleavefortheMainlandsincethebeliefisalmostuniversalthatit'ssomekindofPromisedLand.

PromisedLand,bah!Thereisalmostnofood-raisingthatIhaveseenontheMainland,thefisharelousy,veryverylittleinthewayofwildareasapersoncanwanderaroundinandmostofthoselousysowho'dwanttowanderinthemanyway.

Now,theremaybeMainlandareasIhavenotseenthatmaybesustainable.ThePacificNorthwestneartheshoremaybe,andthedamp,verdent,Southeast.I'mwillingtobetLouisianaandFloridacomeclosetoHawaiiforliveability,ifyoucandealwithbeingcleanedoutbyahurricaneonceinawhile.Ilovecrawdads!

HawaiiisalsothecheapestplaceIhaveeverlived.WhenImade$5anhour,Ihadnoproblemsavingup$100to$200amonthinthebank.Thatwasinthemid80s.Priceshavenotchangedmuch,andnowthemin.wageissomewherearound$7.Youdon'tneedacar,youdon'tneedtonsofclothesorshoes,themostmenialjobwillsupportadecentlife,andmanyfoodstuffsarefreeforthepicking,catching,plantandharvesthereandthere,etc.

Justmyobservations.

HelloFleam,

FullDisclosure:IhaveneverbeentoHawaii...

...butifitisgoodenoughforJayHansontoliveonKona,then,IMO,itisgoodenoughtostartthesequentialbuildingofbiosolarhabitatswitheventualenlargementtoalltheislands.Ihavepostedmuchbeforeonspeculativestrategies&tacticstominimizeFF-MPPwhilerampingbiosolar-MPPforoptimalparadigmshift:

[Arough'cut&paste'synopsisofmypostings]--------------------------------------Secessiontendencies[Cascadia,NewVermontRepublic,etc]tojumpstartthesequentialbuildingandenlargementofbiosolarhabitats;Asimov'sFoundationconceptsofpredictivecollapseanddirecteddeclineforoptimalparadigmtransition;politicalgeo-boundariesrealisticallyre-definedbywatersheddemarcation;thebenefitsoftheEarthmarinevsMercDynamiccomparedtowidespreadanarchyonthelocal,regional,andcontinentalscale;biosolarmission-criticalinvestingtofostertransitionchange,bothonalocalscaleandcontinentalscale,toenhancesustainablebiosolarinfrastructurespiderwebsandreduceshort-termdiscounting;realvaluedividendsfrombiosolarinvestingvsworthlesscash,theporridgeprincipleofmetereddecline,'The3DaysoftheCondor'scenario,thermodynamic-economics&territoriality,theremeldingofthehumanimalecosystemintothenaturalecosystem,SpiderWebRiding,strategicreservesofbicycles&wheelbarrows,plusmuchmoreinmyspeculations.

Imakenoclaimtoaccurateprophecy--justspeculationwithever-changing,fluidtimeframes&conceptsthatarehopefullyco-relatedandinterlockingincascadingeffects,andhopefullybackstoppedbyaplethoraofsupportingweblinks,whenIcanfindthemonGoogle.

Ipostwheneveranewbrainstorm[brainfart]occurs:soexpectmore'wild&crazy'extrapolation.Myhopeisthatmymusingswilltriggerevenbetterideasinrealgeniusesthatcanreallyhelptheneededparadigmshiftto60-75%ofusmovingtorelocalizedpermaculturewithaminimalmachete'moshpit.

IalwaysencourageconstructiveTODerelaborationorrefutationofmytextefforts.Mostofall,Ihopetoavoidthatgreatestofbloggingsins:aboringpost.

IMO,theneededcreativityrequiredforthechallengesaheadshouldbeticklingthesynapsesofallTODers.IwouldlovetoseemoreTODerspostingwild&crazyconceptsbygoingtothenextlevelofimaginationforapplicablemitigationandameliorationtooptimizeourtransition.Untilthen,Iremainafast-crashrealist.Mytimeislimited,asitisforeveryone;thefuturewillalwaysbelongtotheyoung--theyneedtolearnhowtocarrytheballforanewgame.

RichardDoak,acolumnistwiththeDesMoinesRegister,wouldseemtoagreewithsomeofMr.Shaw'sideasregardingthefutureofvariousregionsoftheUnitedStates.Heuncharismaticallychristensthisregion"theunitedUpperMidwest",andclaimsIowa,Illinois,Wisconsin,Minnesota,Nebraska,andtheDakotas.ItshouldbenotedthatifMissouriwereconqueredratherthancededtothesoutheastthiswouldbethewesternhalfofPetroleumAdministrationDistrictforDefense#2,withtheeasternhalfcomprisingwhatBobhassimplydubbedtheGreatLakes.

Youmaynothavenoticed,butvirtuallyeverythingthatyouboughtinHawaiiwastransportedtherebyship.Iguessifyoudon'tneedfuel,rawmaterials,finishedproducts,orfoodstuffs,Oahuistrulysustainable.Ofcourseifeveryonewentbacktolivingontaroandfishandwalkingorsailingeverywhere,thelackofimportsmightbeoverlooked.

HawaiiisalsothecheapestplaceIhaveeverlived.

mostareashavelesspeoplelivinginthemthantheyhad100yearsago.

IhavelotsoffamilyonKauaiwhichmakesitattractivetomeforaplacetomoveinthefuture.Youarecorrectabouttheabundantfoodrecources,butthelifestylelivedbymostislanderstodayisheavilysupportedbyfossilfuelsandimports.

Ifwhatyouhadsaidwastrue(therewerelesspeople,costoflivingwaslow,etc.)Iwouldhavemovedthereyearsago!Thispastsummer,mywifeandIwerethereforvacation.Weweretryingtoscopeouthomesthatwereforsale.Isawmanylistingsforcondosinthe$125-$250thousanddollarrange.Ithought,"Heywecouldaffordsomethinglikethat".Ilaterlearnedthatthesepriceswerefor1/6ownership.

Phreephallin-

MostthingsIboughttherewerebroughtin-they'vebeenbringingthingsinsincethelate1700s.Therewasathrivingdowntownandbakeryetcusingallimportedequipmentin1830.Thiswasbefore"oil"meantanythingotherthanwhaleoil.YesIknowwhatyoumean,though.WhileIknowhowtomakeHawaiiantraditionalfishhooksandnetsetc.,matting,cloth,traditionalbuildingmethods.,etcforthatmattertoo,Ifishedwithstore-boughthooksusingstore-boughtline.Food'sabouthalfandhalf,it'stheonlyplaceIknowifwhereIcouldgoona100%localdiet,includingcoffee!AndultimatelyIAMtalkingabouteveryonewalkingorsailingeverywhere,yeahsureusethemodernstuffwhileit'saroundbutIsuredon'tbelieveinthiscornucopianethanolstuff,geothermal,etc.

Timeshavechanged-yestheysurehave.Theminimumwageisnow$7insteadof$3.35.Bigwhoop.Rentshavenotchangedmuchatall,it'sweird.Iwasbackforafewmonthsin2003.Ihadagreatapartmentfor$600amonthinWaikiki,andturneddownroomsinthe$225-$325rangebecauseI'dboughtthisVolvostationwagonandtheroomswereshortonparking.Food,transpo,clothes,everythingonecarestomentionischeaperthanontheMainland.TheonlyMainlandplaceIknowofthat'sas-cheapisthearmpitofColorado.

Iknowthetotalpopulationhasgonewayup,butit's99.9%detritovoreslivinginthecities,USretirees,etc.Yougohikingaroundoutinthewildsandyou'llfindoldwallsandstuff,placeswherethere'sjustnooneformanysquaremiles.I'mgoingtogooutonalimbandsaythatwiththesophisticatedAsiangardeningtechniquesknowntherenowaswellastraditionalHawaiianones,Hawaiicouldsupportitspresentpopulation.ButIalsofeelaLOTofpeoplewillleaveforthemainlandwhenthingsgetbad.

Thelifestyletodayisheavilysubsidized.....yeahnokidding--what'stheaveragemokewithouthisstacked-up4X4AndbeerDotheyevenmakePrimothereanymoreSadly,whileinthebestareatolivetraditionally,they'reinlovewiththeWesternmachine-mediatedlife.HellIwastoo,wantedacarandahouseandallthatBS.Icouldhardlywaittoleave.IttookmealongtimetorealizetheAmericantreadmillisnotaniceplacetolive.

I'mnotsurewhatyoumeanby1/6owership,doyoumeanyouwerelookingattimesharesNormallyrealestatethereisLeasehold,whichmeansyouowntheland,orFeeSimple,whichmeansyoudon't.InthecaseofFeeSimple,there'salandleaseyouhavetoknowabout.Buyingthereisamatterofdoingthenumbersanddecidingifyou'rebetteroffrenting.Youprobablyarebetteroffrenting,justasitishereontheMainland.Buyingaplaceshouldcostatmost2years'income,andinsteadit's6Xormore.Buyingfarmlandwouldbedifferent-youcanmakeitmoreproductive,youcanearnfromityearafteryear,etc.RealEstateintheUShasbeeninbubblemodeandbasicallyascamsinceprobablythelate1960s.

Fleam:Thanksfortheinfo.IwillbegoingsouththiswintertoCostaRicaandHawaiiandeveryonesaysthatOahuissoexpensive.Likeyousay,youdon'tneedacarinWaikikiandtherentslookprettyreasonableontheinternet.CostaRicaisalmostfree,butIhaven'tseeanyplaceasbeautifulasHawaii.

JustFYI...it'stheopposite.Leaseholdmeansyoudon'towntheland.Youleaseit.Feesimplemeansyoudoowntheland.Mostplaces,thisisthedefault,andtheydon'tevenbothertosayso.InHawaii,theywilladvertiseifapropertyisfeesimple.

Leasesaretypicallyfor100years,buttheremaybeonlyafewyearsleftwhenyoubuy.Whentheleaseisup,theymayofferanotherlease.Theymayallowyoutoconverttofeesimple(foralargepayment,ofcourse).Ortheymaykickyouoff.Sometimesyouseepeoplemovingtheirentirehouses,becausetheycouldn'tgettheleaseonthelandrenewed.

Ican'tbelieveIgotleaseholdandfeesimplemixedup.

Myoldersister,thenastyonewhowenttoPunahouschool,ownserisownedbyaplacemaybe600squarefeet,hermetically-sealedclimated-controlled,inatoweronthe10thfloor,thatlooksoutoverthenewspaperbuilding.She'spaying$1500amonthmortgagebutIthinktherearefeesandthingsthatbringitupcloserto$2000.ShecouldhaverentedaHOUSEinManoaValleyforlessforalltheseyears,andherplacewillbecomeunliveablewhentheelectricitybecomestoodear,makingitworthless.Ohandshedrivesthemostpimped-outblackVWPassat(withwingontheback)ontheislandwhichcostsherabout$700amonth(atleast!)becauseshe'sembarassedtorideDaBus.

IgrewuponDaBus!

Getadecentscooterandyou0wnthatislandthough.Ifyouwanttobeeco-correctbikeforintownandbusforrainydaysandlongerdistancesisagoodwaytogotoo.

IrodeascooterwhileIwasworkinginWakikianditwaswonderful.Ithink50ccwouldbedangerouslyunderpoweredoutsideofHonolulubuta125ccVinowoulddoeverythingneeded.WhenspiralinggaspricespunchoutthefourwheelvehiclesthatportionoflivinginHawaiiwilldojustfine.

Oh,andthepeoplewhoaresayingitscheaptolivehavedatedinformation-allexpensive,allthetime,perthelocalsItalkedtowhenIwasthereearlierthisyear.

FromNYTimes5-31-1984

"TheSupremeCourttodayupheldamajorlandreformprograminHawaii,ruling8to0thatastatemayuseitspowerofeminentdomaintobreakuplargeestatesandtransferlandownershiptotheestates'tenants.

...

ThestatelawhadbeenchallengedbytheBishopEstate,Hawaii'slargestprivatelandowner,adominantforceintheislands'economyandpolitics.

TenantsRenttheLand

TheHawaiiLegislaturepassedthelawtobreakupanunusualconcentrationofprivatepropertyinrelativelyfewhands.Seventy-twoprivatelandownersheld47percentofallthelandinHawaiiinthelate1960's,withtheFederalandstategovernmentsowninganother49percent.

Manyoftheestatesarebrokenupintosingle-familylotsandleasedtofamilieswhohavebuilthomesandarenowpayingsharplyrisingrentsfortheland.

Therulingtodaywillenablethestate'shousingauthority,undercertaincircumstances,toacquireindiv

UndertheLandReformAct,tenantswhoownhomesonleasedsingle-familylotsmayasktheHawaiiHousingAuthoritytocondemntheirlot.Afterhalfthetenantswithinadevelopmenttract,oratleast25tenants,havemadesimilarrequests,thestateagencyholdsapublichearingtodetermineifacquiringtheparticularpropertywill''effectuatethepublicpurposes''oftheact.

Theacquisitionprocessthenbegins,withthepricedeterminedbynegotiationoratrial.Tenants,inturn,mayborrowupto90percentofthepurchasepricefromthestateagency.

TheBishopEstateisacharitabletrustwhoseholdingsincludethelandonceownedbyHawaii'sroyalfamily.Theestateowns9percentofHawaii'sland,including22percentofalltheprivatelyownedlandonOahu,Hawaii'sthirdlargestislandandseatofHonolulu,thestatecapital.

Theestate,whichisadministeredbyfivetrustees,broughtitslawsuitin1979afterthestatebegantheprocessofacquiringsomeoftheestate'sland.TheFederalDistrictCourtinHawaiiupheldthelawina1979rulingthatwasoverturnedonappeal.

LaurenceH.Tribe,aHarvardLawSchoolprofessor,arguedtheappealintheHawaiiSupremeCourtasaspecialDeputyStateAttorneyGeneral.

AssociateJusticeThurgoodMarshalldidnottakepartinthecase,HawaiiHousingAuthorityv.Midkiff,No.83-141.

Haawaiiisnotexpensivewhenyouconsidernoheating/coolingbills,lessclothesneededandnoneedforacar.Idon'tmeannoneedforacarinWaikiki,Imeannoneedatall.

Andyoucanpickupajobpaying$7-$10anhourprettyeasily.I'veheardCostaRicaisuber-cheapbutwheredoyougetajobIsawashowaboutbaseballsbeingmadethereandtherewereplentyofwhitefolkstheresewingupbaseballsfor50centsanhourorwhateverthewagesarethere.NotmuchI'msureandIdoubtthosefolkswouldbesewingupbaseballsforpieceworkiftheycouldgetanythingbetter.

Youarecorrect.ThepopulationofHawaiinowislargerthanit'severbeen.Eventheouterislandsarefarabovetheirancientpopulationlevels.

Youcangrowfoodinthebackyard,butmostbackyardsareverysmall,andalotofpeopleliveincondosandtoweringapartmentbuildings.Theyhavenobackyards.

RealestateiskindofweirdinHawaii,too.Ifyoubuyahouseoracondo,alotoftimesthelandisn'tincluded.Ifitis,thelistingwillsay"feesimple"andthepricewillbehigher.

Likeyou,IhavefamilyinHawaii,andI'mtorn.PartofmethinksbeingwithfamilywillbemorevaluablethananythingelseifTSHTF.Partofmethinksyou'dhavetobecrazytowanttorideoutthepost-carbonageonafewover-populatedrocksinthemiddleofthePacific.Giventhecurrentpopulation,it'sanotherEasterIslandwaitingtohappen.

MyfamilyisontheBigIsland,andwhenIgotherenow,I'mjustshockedhowcrowdeditis.WhenIlearnedtodriveinthe'80s,therewasonlyonestoplightintown.Nowit'sanasphaltjungle.Moretrafficsignalsthanyoucancount,multilaneroads,massivetrafficjams.AndinsteadoftheSearsoffice(whereyourmailordersweredelivered),thereareallkindsofbigboxstores.Wal-Mart,Borders,HomeDepot,etc.Myhighschool,whichhadbeenasleepycountryschoolfordecades,grewtofourtimesitssize,andtheyhadtobuildanotherone.(Whichatleastmakesiteasiertohavefootballgames.;-)

Leanan-YesI'veneverdeniedthepopulationisfar,farabovetraditionallevels.Andthetraditionalpeopleworetapaandwalkedeverywhereandthoughtseaweedmashedupwithtoastedkukuinutsandrawfishwasagreatmeal-andpoi.Theirneedswereverylowontheenergyscale.Ijustthinkalotof"rats"willleavethe"ship"thinking,likeeveryoneseemstooverthere,thattheMainlandissomekindoffrigginbreadbasket.

Yesthepeopleoftenliveinplaceswithnoyards.Idid,buttherearesomanyunusedpiecesofland,utterlyneglectedplaceswheresomesweetpotatoescanbeplanted,herbs,etcandsomanyplaceswherefoodstuffslikebreadfruitandsoonarelefttorot.Tonsandtonsandtonsofunusedland.

Ihaveanoldersisterthere,butshe'sagoodAmericanwhichmeanssinceI'mpoorthesedays,sheconsidersmethescumoftheearth.ShegottogotoPunahouandanyonewhodidn'tislowerthanwhaleshitinherworld.Sothefamilyparthaslittlemeaningforme.Thethingis,therearesomereallydecentpeoplethere,youdon'tneedacartogoplacesthere,andit'swhereIgrewup.

IthinkeveryoneTHINKSitwillbeanotherEasterIsland,butintruthit'sthemainlandUSthatwillbetheEasterIslandscenario.WhereIamnow(northernarizona)reallygrowsnothing,everything'struckedin,andyoudon'tgoanywherewithoutacar.Noteventhemailbox,whichisaPOboxdowntown.

TheBigIslandhasgrownalotinpopulation.Tonotputtoofineapointonit,ifyou'rewhite,that'swhereyougo.Youhavetoreallywantto"gonative"tobehappyonOahu,orhavegrownupthere.PlentyofwhitesonOahu,andinfactIwasinawhitermilieutherethaninSunnyvaleCalifornia,buttheyarestillonlyabout25%ofthepopulationandatleastonthemainlandanyplacewherewhitesare25%ofthepopulationis"death".So,whitesgototheBigIsland.ThecomputerworkisalmostallonOahu,butJayHansonwenttotheBigIslandforthisreason.Ifyouwanttolivea"modern"life,it'stheplacetogo.Ifyouwanttolivelikeit'sthe1920sorsomething,notownacar,getaroundbybusorbike,tradewithpeopleyou'veliterallyknown2or3generationsofinthesamesmallstore,Oahuistheplaceyougo.

There'spotentiallyalotofethnicconflictjustwaitingtohappenthere,butitlookslikethat'sgoingtohappen,ifthingsgetthatbad,everywhere.Noonecantellmetherewon'tbearealshootin'warhereiffoodgetslow.

ThereasonEasterIslandbecame,well,EasterIsland,isthattheycouldn'tgetoff.IthinkthatmayhappenwithHawaii,too.Theratsmaywanttoleavethesinkingship...buttheymaynotbeableto.

AndtheBigIslandisonly30%Caucasian.Ifethnicityisaconcern,JaywouldhavebeenbetteroffstayinginMinnesota,whichis90%white.Ithinkthatareaofthecountryislikelytodowell,consideringclimatechangeandall.

Andthere'sthat"MinnesotaNice"thing,unlessyouhavethemoneytosendyourkiidstoprivateschool,Hawaii'snotagreatplaceschool-wisetoraisekids.They'llgrowuptobelittleNazislol.

Raceisapervasiveandall-decidingissueinHawaiithough,andit'salsobecomethatinCalifornia.Racedecideswhereyoucangotoschool,whetheryoucangotocollege,etc.Whowillhireyou.Whattheywillhireyoutodo.Whetherornotyouwillevergetapromotion.Whereyoucanlive.

It'sprobablythatwayinNYCtoo,anylarge"diverse"place.

What'sbadabouttheUSisracialdivisionsandpreferencesaresetintolaw.

AtleastinHawaiimostwhitesseemtounderstandthattheyhavetolookoutforeachotherbecauseit'snotlikeanyoneelseisgoingto.....

IalwaysthoughtHawaiiwasastate,butafteroneshortvisititsobviouslyasmallforeigncountryinvadedbytheUnitedStatesacenturyagoandasthingsgetuglythenativesseemlikethey'llbequitepleasedtoconstrainthehaoletomilitaryfacilitiesinPearlHarborandlittleelse...

RaceisabigpartoflifeinHawaii...butit'sabigpartoflifeeverywhereintheUS.However,it'softenashocktomainlanders,whoaresousedtobeingthemajoritythatraceissuesareinvisibletothem.

IthinkHawaiimightactuallyhandleracebetterthanmostareasoftheUS,becauseit'soutintheopeninHawaii.Ethnichumorisacceptablethere,inawayitisn'tanywhereelseintheUS.ThemajorityofpeopleinHawaiiarenowofmixedrace.Racialissuesaremoreaslow,constantsimmerthere,whileonthemainland,they'remorehidden...butmoreexplosivebecauseofthat.

Myinitialpostis'waydownfromhere,butacouplecommentsontheselatercomments:

Quitetrue.Iwillnote,though,thatthe"malthusangap"isprobablyalotlesssignificantonthebigislethanonaboutanyoftheUSmainland.Thatis,acomparisonofthecurrentpopulationloadvs.thestone-agepopulationload.Withabigbunchofstoredfertilizer,andmodernterracedfields,thebigislecangrowalotofstuff.WhereelseisthereanythingCLOSEtostone-agepopulationlevelsnowintheUSA

Also,propertyvaluesarefalling.Ihopetosnagabigislefarmoncepeoplestartmoving;andtheywill.

Partofmethinksyou'dhavetobecrazytowanttorideoutthepost-carbonageonafewover-populatedrocksinthemiddleofthePacific.Giventhecurrentpopulation,it'sanotherEasterIslandwaitingtohappen.

Partofmethinksthat,too.Theterm"faminetrap"comesupinmymindforoahuwhereInowam.Ifthefoodbargesstopcoming,it'llbeyeastinadepletedpetridish.However,ifbargesoffooddokeepcoming,itcouldbeanOKplacetobeforawhile.

I'dlivetoseearealpeak-oilcrowdputtheirassetstogethertomakeastandonthebigisle;Ithinkitcoulddoquitewell.Hell,wemightevenhaveenoughsparetimetomakegiantstoneheads.

HeyGreenish,

Ithoughtyouweregoingtobepartofmy"clan."

Wonderfulcropofnutsthisyear!!!Hugeandlusciousorangesonsomeofouryoungorangetrees(plantedlessthan2yearsago)!!!Lotsofpapayaandpassionfruiteveryday!!!ButImustsayithasbeenaLOTofworkandI'mtiredandneedabreak.Havingafewyoungerfolksaroundtohelpoutsoundsgood.

Fixedthefrontendofmy71240Zlastweek(rebuiltrack,newtierodends,clutchslave,caliper)andshe'salmostroadworthyagain.Boughthernewin1971,soshe'sbeenwithmefor36.5years.She'sgotalotofrustandHIdoesn'thelp,butshe'sfairlyfuelefficientandextremelyeasytoworkon(andalsoalotoffun).AllthehippieshereinPunadrooloverher.Besidesthesentimentalityaspect,Ikeepherbecauseinapinchsheiseasytojury-rigwhenthingsgowrongand/oryoucan'tfindtheexactpart.Thosenew-fangledvehiclescanbesuchapainwithalltheirelectronics.

Theclanisstillagreatplan.Still,ifIcanlureinafewbillionairesandothers,itcouldgivetheclanacertain'edge'.

ThePahoaplanisagoodone;thoughperhapsaworkinprogressIdon'twanttojustmoochoffyourproperty....

ThoughifourDearLeaders(ie,Bush/Cheney)startmakingnuclearthreats,don'tbesurprisedtofindmeinyourbackyard,IthinkIcouldmakeitfrommyhousetoyourislandinabout2hoursfromastandingstart.IfMaunaLoaerupts,feelfreetohangoutinmybackyardforawhile.Youlikestarfruit

(edit)

Havingafewyoungerfolksaroundtohelpoutsoundsgood.

Soundsgoodtometoo,butI'mold&useless,justaskmywife.Buttreacheryandguilemaycomeinhandy.

RealEstateonBI:SomeofthesefolksareintotaldenialaboutthestateofREthesedays.Myfarright-wingneighborlistedherhouseoverayearagoandhasn'tdroppedthepriceadime--anditwasapremium,topofthemarketpricetobeginwith.So,theseyokulsdecidedtoaddontothehousesothattheycould"gettheirprice."Ijustwantthemgone....Anotherneighborfinallygotanofferafter9monthsonthemarket,butitwassofarbeneaththeirexpectationsthattheytookitoffthemarket.Andthesefolkshavejustfinishedbuildinganewhousethatisnexttotheirmacnutorchard,andtheyaregoingtorentoutthenewhouse.Veryweird.

Oneacrelotsthatweresellingfor$60-80Katthetopofthemarketarenowsellingforabout$40K.Onehousesoldrecently:listedfor$445K,soldfor$345K.Moreandmoreforsalesignsgoingup--andVERYfewevercomedown.

OnRealestateonthebigisle-someyearsagoboughtsomeforestlotsupinFernForest&ahouselotinVolcano.Isouldacouplelastyear,buttheremainingonesaren'tmoving;they'relistedoncraigslistandnotmanycallsevenundersellingthemarket.Iwillsell,though,sinceI'munsentimentalaboutpropertyvalues.

Still,withmeofferinga3-acreaglotonelectricityfor35Kfeesimple,Ireckonit'llselltosomedoomer(anytakers)(disclosure:thisrepresentsa4kdoomerdiscount).

Thissoundslikesomethingrichfolkswoulddo,butinfactweboughttheforestlotsjusttolocksomethinginuntilwecouldaffordbetterfarmland.

Still,ifsomeonewantedtogetsomesurpluscargocontainersanddrop'eminthemiddleofthelot,wellthey'dhaveanicefunkycheapsurvivalplacetogrowpapayas.

Ithinkit'llbeseveralyearsbeforepricesreallyfall.Ofcourse,myplaceonOahuwillbefallingevenfasterbutmymomneedstobehere,soIcanbephilosophicalaboutthepropertyvaluesexceptattaxtime.Youwouldn'tbelievewhatthislittleplywoodplaceIbuiltisassessedat.yeesh.

Myotherneighbor'shusbandisinthehospitalforthe3rdtime,andIwonderhowmuchlongershewillhanginhere.Sheworks,thencomeshomeandmowsthegrassandtriestotakecareofeverything,visitsherhubbyalmosteverydayatthehospital,andhas2older,handicappedchildren--oneofwhichrequiresconstantattention.She'sevengettingtestywithherpet.Isuspectthatifhedies,shewon'tlikelystayhere.Thatwillmeanthatofthe5setsofneighborsIknowbest,3setsaretryingtobailnowandIexpecthertobethenexttogo.Whenthingsstarttogetreallybadandfuelcostsgettoohigh,Iexpectallofthemtodroptheirpricessignificantlyandleave.Theywilleithermovetotownorofftheisland.Itcouldendupbeingagreatsetupforour"clan"withalloftheselotsclosetogethersothatwecanlookoutforanhelpprotecteachother.

It'sinteresting.Ofthe3neighborswhowanttosell,the3rdoneunexpectedlyputupaforsalesign.Theyarealittleolderthanus(intheir60's)andtheywantedtodotheself-sufficiencything.TheyhadbeentalkingaboutmovingbacktoIsraelinabout7yearsbecauseofthecheaphealthcareandcheapfood(theM.E.--ofallplaces).LastweekIgotoneofthoseREpostcardsinthemailaboutanewlisting,andbygollythepicturewasofZipporaandRamon'shouse.Wewereprettystunned.Evidentlytheyupanddecidedthatitwasjusttoomuchworkandthey'vehaditwithsomeoftheotherissuesinthearea.Evenreallydeterminedpeoplecan'thacktheself-sufficiencything.Theyjustputa$25Kroofontheirhousetoo--andthey'llneverrecoupthat.

Atthispoint,mostofourneighborswho"loved"itherearetryingtobail.IdaresaythatmostAmericansarenotmentallypreparedtotryandliveintrulyruralarea.Theright-wingersstillgoouttodinneralmosteverynightinPahoa(thatmustbegettingold)andshedoes3loadsoflaundryeverydaywhilebitchingabouttheelectricbill.Ha,ha,ha...Evidently,shehasn'tfiguredoutthatsleepingonyoursheetsformorethan1nightwon'tkillyou....

WhereelseisthereanythingCLOSEtostone-agepopulationlevelsnowintheUSA

Thereisoneweblogabouthowtheyhaveafamilyof4andhowtheyarebeingfedon400sqfootofintensegardening.

Withoutcreatingasuitableenvironment(alasunnyjohnlink)-yeaIagreeaboutnotbeingableto.But,ifyouhaveland,youcandosomegoodstuff.

IthinktherealotofplaceswherethepopulationisclosertoStoneAgelevelsthantheBigIsland.

AndtheBigIslandisproblematicbecauseitissonew.Thesoilisverythin.Thereisarealdangerofhavingyourpropertyburiedunderlava.There'snotenoughwaterforthecurrentpopulation,whichisprobablyabiggerproblemthansoil.

Konausedtobeforest.Nowmuchofitlookslikedesert.WhathappenedTheyclearedthetreestofarm.Whichcausedmassiveerosion.Nowthestreamshavedriedup,becausethere'snothingtoholdthewateranymore.

Isuspectanolderouterisland-Kauai,maybe-wouldbeabetterchoicetomakeapeakoilstand.ThesoilisinmuchbettershapetherethanontheBigIsland.

Yourexperienceofthebigislehasbeenalotmorepersonalthanmine.

Still,IexpectittobealotbetterthanOahu,andit'saffordableinawayKauaiisn't.Iamintriguedbytheapparentlyrising'peakoil'nexusofpeopleonKauai.It'sbeautifultherebutIcan'taffordit,whileIactuallyboughtsome"deepsoil"lotsseveralyearsagoupslopefromHilofor5grandeach.(andthey'restillcheap,google"alohaestates").

Thereshouldbenoreasonforanimmediatefamineonthebigisleinmylifetime,andIdon'thavekids.AndtheKauailowlandsareamosquitohaven,Ireallyenjoybeingabletobeupcountryabit,whichisharderonKauai.I'vegotnothingagainstcatchmentwater.

Theoddsofbeinginundatedbylavaareprettylowstatistically,Ithinkyou'dagree.ProbablyaboutlikebeinghitbyatornadoinIndiana,andofthetwoI'dratherrunfromlavathanatornado.Plus,ifyourhouseisgonnabedestroyed,howcoolisittoseeitswallowedbylava

Iamintriguedbytheapparentlyrising'peakoil'nexusofpeopleonKauai.

Yes,that'skindofinteresting.Ithinkbeingpartofalike-mindedcommunitywillbeessentialifthingsgetreallybad.

Thereshouldbenoreasonforanimmediatefamineonthebigisleinmylifetime

Idisagreewiththat.

Theoddsofbeinginundatedbylavaareprettylowstatistically,Ithinkyou'dagree.

Itdependsonwhere.InsomeplacesontheBigIsland,theoddsareprettyhigh.Andinsome,theoddsareunknown.Forexample,Hualalaihasn'teruptedinalongtime.Isitonitswaytoextinction...orisitoverdue

Thenthere'stheideathatclimatechangemightcauseincreasedearthquakesandvolcanicactivity.Thethingis,ifyouguesswrong...youmightnotgetanotherchance.Theremaybenoescape.

Idon'tthinkyoucancountonenoughpeopleleavingtomakeitsustainable,either.Hawaiiwillbeofmilitaryinterestlongafteritstourismindustrydies.HawaiiwasattackedduringWWII,whentherestoftheUSwasnot.

I'dhavetroublethinkingoflifeontheslopesofanactivevolcanoasbeingagoodideaevenifpeakoilwascenturiesaway.

IlivedonOahufor4yearsbackinthe60'sanditwasveryexpensive.Gaswasfarhigherthanonthemainland.

Asfaras'plentyofwater'..thenwhywastheleewardsidesomuchlikeadesertCatcusgrewthere.ThewindwardsidewasfarmorelushduetothewindsandmountainsbutthesidewhereWainanaewasandEvawerenotasfullofmoisture..becauseofthetwomountainranges.

Ihikedtothetopofsomeofthosemountainsandfoundlotsofblackberriesgrowingthereanditwasmoreneartoarainforestbutnotthatwet.

Ialsospentalotoftimeonotherislandsinthepacificandtheydidnothavemuchvegetation.Lotsandlotsofsandandvolcanichardtypesofrockyareas.Checkthe'blowhole'.Lavaeverywhere.

Inlandatthattimecaneandpineappleswerethemajorcrops..Mostoftheislandwasnotthatheavilypopulatedandonecouldgotoalmostanybeachandbeallalone,exceptforHanaumaandWaikiki.

Theniswasmorelikeparadise,stillonerarelysawarealHawaiian..mostwereofAsiaticdescent..

HereisthewayIrememberit.TheChinesebehindthescenesownedalotofeverything,theJapaneseranitforthem,theFilipinosdidthebuttworkandthehaoleroundeyes(Americans)paythepricesandwantedbutterontheirtoastortheythrewashitfit..attheBanyanCourt.

Lateritgotwaywaywaymoreexpensive..theonlyonesIsawdoinganyhandgardening..welikeChinesewithcooliehatsonwalkingalongcertainareasupontheeasternsidewheresomeshackswereandwhatlookedlikesmallscalefarms..

Thehugetractsoflandwereownedbythedescendantsofthemissionariesandlaterbecomehugecorporations.

Alltherestworkedincaneordoingpineapples...ormadealivingoffthemalahines(spellingwrong,Iknow).

Ienjoyedmyfouryearsbutwashappytoreturntothemidwestanddeepsouth.Ineverreturned.

NowIgoogleitandthegrowthisstupendous..andnowIknowtheywon'tstandachanceofsurviving.

MymainobjectivewhiletherewastohitonthecoedsatWaikiki,dive,surfanddrinklikker.OneeveningIhadthreedates.Itwassurreal.Ialsohadajeepthereandhuntedinthemountains..IwenttoNanakulimanytimesandno'beachboys'triedanything,ever.

airdale-sawenoughfakehulatolastmealifetime..tahitiandancewasmoretomyliking..thewomenwouldstandinonespotandshaketheirwholebody..no'lovelyhulahands'there...tamura!

PS.NoHuHu,please.

Airdale-Ahh,thegoodolddaysehGoodpost!Letmeinterleavesomereplies....

A:IlivedonOahufor4yearsbackinthe60'sanditwasveryexpensive.Gaswasfarhigherthanonthemainland.

F:Yeah,probablymoreexpensivethanMinnesotaorsomplace,yeah.CheaperthanCaliand'waycheaperifyoudon'tneedacar-justhopthebusandthat'sself-limitingat$45amonth,unlimitedpass.

A:Asfaras'plentyofwater'..thenwhywastheleewardsidesomuchlikeadesertCatcusgrewthere.ThewindwardsidewasfarmorelushduetothewindsandmountainsbutthesidewhereWainanaewasandEvawerenotasfullofmoisture..becauseofthetwomountainranges.

F:YouarerightaboutthewholeLeewardSide,greatplacetobeacactus,ifyoucanstandthewind.Traditionallytherewerelittlestreamsrunningaround,springsandstuffbutthesedayswhoknows.

A:Ihikedtothetopofsomeofthosemountainsandfoundlotsofblackberriesgrowingthereanditwasmoreneartoarainforestbutnotthatwet.

F:Yeah,cloudforestorsomething,andyeahthoseberriesaregood.UntilyoueattheonewiththewormLOL.Weusedtogoupandpick"mountainapples"(ohia)andmanthosethingsareGOOD.Butyoucanbuy'emforadollarabagatthestreetmarketinchinatownwhichiscool.

A:Ialsospentalotoftimeonotherislandsinthepacificandtheydidnothavemuchvegetation.Lotsandlotsofsandandvolcanichardtypesofrockyareas.Checkthe'blowhole'.Lavaeverywhere.

F:Ohyeahthe"blowhole"thatlava-ysideoftheislandiswhattheBigIslandtendstobelikeIthink,it'syounger.Iguessthey'vemadeitillegaltoswimintheToiletBowl,toomanypeopledyingorsomething.

A:Inlandatthattimecaneandpineappleswerethemajorcrops..Mostoftheislandwasnotthatheavilypopulatedandonecouldgotoalmostanybeachandbeallalone,exceptforHanaumaandWaikiki.

F:Irmemberthosedays,alotofplacesaroundKahukuandLaieetcyoucanbetheonlyonethere,WaimeaBay'sallcrowded,andtheshorealongPunaluuhasalotmorepeoplethanitusedto.(Iusedtowalkalongmilesofshoretherelookingfor-andfinding-glassfloatsat4AM.)ThebeachbyChinaman'sHatismajorgroupsofJapaneseturistasterritorynow.

A:Theniswasmorelikeparadise,stillonerarelysawarealHawaiian..mostwereofAsiaticdescent..

F:Fewinelementaryschool,andtheytendedtobethebullies.ThewholeKuapaareainHawaiiKaiwasahugefishpond,largetraditionalHawaiianareauntilitgraduallygot"civilized"andthepoorHawaiiansarekindofpushedupintothebacksofthosedryvalleysnow.YesmostofthepopulationissometypeofAsianoranother.

A:HereisthewayIrememberit.TheChinesebehindthescenesownedalotofeverything,theJapaneseranitforthem,theFilipinosdidthebuttworkandthehaoleroundeyes(Americans)paythepricesandwantedbutterontheirtoastortheythrewashitfit..attheBanyanCourt.

F:Yep,Chinesestillownmostthings,Japaneseworkfor'em,Filipinosdothebuttwork,Haolessellrealestate,jerkcoffeeatStarbucks,startsmallbiz's,workinthesex/drugtrade,ordotheworkthat'stooshittyforanyoneelselikeworkatthatdamnedBlueCrossAnimalHospital.PlentyofHaoleswithmoneyandplentyof'emsleepingintheparkandrobbingliquorstorestoo.

A:Lateritgotwaywaywaymoreexpensive..theonlyonesIsawdoinganyhandgardening..welikeChinesewithcooliehatsonwalkingalongcertainareasupontheeasternsidewheresomeshackswereandwhatlookedlikesmallscalefarms..

F:OldMrAntokuinPunaluu,hadafarmonthemaukasideoftheroadandhishouseandfishingboatsnetsetcontheotherside,onlyabout80yearsoldandseemedtobeprettymuchself-sufficient.Ofcourseheprobablyhad10kidswhoowned15banksandstorestoo....LotsofAsiansworkingasgardeners,Filipinosconsideredespeciallygiftedatthisworksosomecompaniesadvertisethatthey'reFilipino,Samoansdococonuttreeworkthough.Noonewouldhireawhitegardener,toobad,Ireallythoughtthat'sagreatjob.

A:Thehugetractsoflandwereownedbythedescendantsofthemissionariesandlaterbecomehugecorporations.

F:Ohyeahthe"BigFive"familiesetc.,

A:Alltherestworkedincaneordoingpineapples...ormadealivingoffthemalahines(spellingwrong,Iknow).

F:Caneandpineapplearedead,they'reandbythey'reImeanHaolesthankGod,aretryingoutgrowingcoffeesothemiddleoftheislandishosttotonsofspindlycoffeetrees,Ihopeitgoeswell,coffeeisfairlylabor-intensiveandshouldprovidesomework,andthere'snothinglikegoingintoacoffeeshopinHaleiwaandhavingsomeWailuabeans.

A:Ienjoyedmyfouryearsbutwashappytoreturntothemidwestanddeepsouth.Ineverreturned.

F:LotsofpeoplefromHawaiileaveandseemtofindgreathappinessintheMWanddeepsouth.MaybeIhaven'tgoneeastenough,northernArizonaisstillkindofasuburbofCalifornialol.

A:NowIgoogleitandthegrowthisstupendous..andnowIknowtheywon'tstandachanceofsurviving.

F:ThereisaHawaiiancultureresurgencemovementbutit'saboutassuccessfulaswell,African-cultureresurgencemovementsintheUSorEuropeantradationalmovements(backtotheland,amishetc)intheUS.BasicallynoonewantstogrubaroundinataropatchalldayifBrittney'sonTVandthebeer'scoldandyoupromisedyourbuddiestogo"drive4by4"inthe"kahukus".Andwhenthingsdogetbad,yeah,peopleareprobablymorelikelytofightthanwork.

A:MymainobjectivewhiletherewastohitonthecoedsatWaikiki,dive,surfanddrinklikker.OneeveningIhadthreedates.Itwassurreal.Ialsohadajeepthereandhuntedinthemountains..IwenttoNanakulimanytimesandno'beachboys'triedanything,ever.

F:Ifyou'redoingwhatthey'redoing,fishing,jeeping,ridingarattyolddirtbike,being"oneoftheboys"you'llgetlittlehassles.WhattheyhateistheMainlanderwhohasmoremoneythanthey'lleverhaveandshovesitinhisface.Then,you'relikelytogetthesamereactiona"Toff"inEnglandwouldgetbyactingthesamewayinaworking-classarea.Soundslikeyouwerecool.

A:airdale-sawenoughfakehulatolastmealifetime..tahitiandancewasmoretomyliking..thewomenwouldstandinonespotandshaketheirwholebody..no'lovelyhulahands'there...tamura!

F:Theywearweightsintheskirtstoshakereallyfastlikethat,weird,huhReallyhardtodowithoutthem,mucheasierwiththem.

Fleam,,

Thankyouverymuchforthereliableupdate.

The'natives'backwhenIwastherelovedtotakedogsandmachetesandgoupinthemountainshuntwildpigs..theywouldkillthemwiththemachetesandthenhavealuala(pigroast..spelleditwrong).

Beingmilitarywecouldkickassandourgangwasbiggerthantheirgangs.Butweneverbotheredthemandtheydidn'tus.

IhaveseenTahitianfemaledancersandtheycertainlydidn'tneedweights!!!

Abunchoftheboysinmysquadronwerealsofromthesouthandstartedafolkmusicband..alaKingstonTrio.etcandplayedoftenatacocktailloungetweenWaikikiandHotelStreet..aniceplaceandsoafterthenightssetstheywouldheadtothebeachwithahugenumberof'groupies'andifanyofuswentalongitendedupasaregularorgy..thecoedshad'takenoprisoners'attitudesaboutcomingtotheislandandwewereallsotannedtheyjustknewwewerelocalhaolesbeachboytypes..

Andifyoueverknewhowyouarrangedamaleandfemalebodyononesurfboardinordertoteachthemorjustcatchsomesets...wellthenyouknewallyouneededtoknow...

Funwasoutrunningtheoutriggersfromthecanoeclub...withasurfboard...andnottie-downswererequirednorknownofbackthen...

Itwasagreatlifewhileitlasted.TherewerebarracksontheislandthatstillhadJapanesebulletholesinthemfromtheattacks.HawaiiwasnotastatewhenIgotthere.MostdidNOTwantittogetstatehoodbutitwasapolitical/corporationdonedeal.IwassittingonthemerrygoroundbaronWaikikibeachtheverynightithappenedandwasannouncedofficially.

Mybestmemoriesarejumpinginthesurf,,lettingitcarrymeout..floatinginthesurfforhoursonendthenhittingawavetotakemebackin...thenalomi-lomiandabigdinneratDontheBeachcombers.

Thanksagainforthepersonaldata...

andhopeyourlifegetsbetter...IalwaysreadFleam'sposts..

airdale-AlohaNuiNui

IcurrentlyliveonVancouverIslandanditismybeliefthattheIliveinwhatreallyisaDEEPsuburbofgreaterVancouver.WearejusttoodependentonFFformetothinkotherwise.Also,ourpopulationisquiteelderlyasretirementispopularforthisareaandthebulkofourfoodcomesfromthemainlandviaahugeferrysystemthatisconstantlyraisingpricesduetofuelcosts.Ourweatherisalsochangingquiterapidlyouthere.

I'mcurioustohearwhatothersthinkofthefutureofIslandlife.WhataresomeNAIslandsthatcouldworkoutOK

RecipientofAA,AlbertaAdvantage

Therearesomeislandsthatareveryattractivefromapostpeakpostshtfviewpoint,andsomearenotso.

ClosebytoshoreManhattanorLongislandaretotallyunsustainable,IsolatedTristandecunaontheotherhandispracticallytotallysustainableonitsown.

InresponsetowhatNAislandswouldworkoutokIthinkthatfromastandpointofsustainabilityinanenergyscarceworldandachangingclimatetwoofthebestareinyourcountry,PEIandNewfoundland,

Theyhaveplusesandminuses,PEIisstilldependentonoutsideenergybuttheyarebuildingwindfarmsandbecauseoftheclimatethereconstantbreezandsmallpopulationgivenenoughtimetheycouldsupplymostoftheirownenergy,PEIhastheaddedadvantageofretainingfarmlandclimatechangemayevenextendthegrowingseason.

Newfoundlandisalittlemoreisolatedandthiscouldbelookedatasanadvantageordisadvantage,TheprovincehassufferedfromtheeconomicfisheriescollapseandadecliningpopulationbutagainthereisasmallpopulationanditisanenergyrichareatheyhavenotonlythehydroplantsontheChurchillriverandareplanningmore,thegovernmentwillhavegreatercontrolofthenewplantsthantheold,thereisalsotheoilandgassectorthattheprovincehasanownershipinterestin,

Eveninadiminishedfisherytherestillshouldbeenoughfordomesticconsumption.Thereagainwouldbeanextendedgrowingseasoninawarmerworld,butnotoohottobear.

AndalthoughtheAtlantichurricanescanendupthereandthereiswinddamagethestormsalsobringupwaterthatfillthereservoirsandaidsinproducinghydropower.

AsLeananhaspointedoutinapreviousdiscussion,theplacewasalreadybumpingintoMalthusianlimitswhenCaptainCookranacrosstheplaceinthe18thcentury.I'mnotsureonwhatevidencethatstatementwasbased,butit'salmostcertaintobeheadedforareductioninpopulation.

Theappearanceofsustainabilityisbasedoncheaptransportationandeasyimportfromtheworld'smanymainlandareas(canyousay'Spam').

I'mnotsureonwhatevidencethatstatementwasbased,butit'salmostcertaintobeheadedforareductioninpopulation.

Interestingstudy—soitwasintheearlystagesofanEasterIslandsort-of-thing.Attheendofapeacefulpopulationexpansionandthebeginningsofconflictamongneighboringclans.

...thedamp,verdent(sic)Southeast

Suggestyoureaduponthatabit-scanthelastweekofDrumBeatsandyou'llfindthingslikeAtlantarunningoutofreservoircapacitybyaboutChristmastimeandAthensgettingtherebyThanksgiving.

Fleam,youarerightaboutFlorida,Louisiana,etal,beingareasof'easyliving',withtonsofavailableseafood,lotsofarablelandandplentyofwater.ThoseareallreasonsthatImovedheremanyyearsago.However,allFloridaresidentsnowfacetheproblemofrisingsealevels...paradiselost.

IamnotfamiliarwithelevationsintheHawaiianIslands,havingonlyvisitedthemainislandonce.

River-IlivedinMaui10years--Thesearehighislands(Maui10,000-BigIslandalmost14,000)--Therisewillmainlyeffectprimebeachfrontresorts,andmanypopulationcenterslocatedontheshore.Butmostofthelandmasshaslittletoworryabout.

"Fleam,youarerightaboutFlorida,Louisiana,etal,beingareasof'easyliving',withtonsofavailableseafood,lotsofarablelandandplentyofwater.ThoseareallreasonsthatImovedheremanyyearsago.However,allFloridaresidentsnowfacetheproblemofrisingsealevels...paradiselost.

IamnotfamiliarwithelevationsintheHawaiianIslands,havingonlyvisitedthemainislandonce."

Thoseareasinfactintrigueme.Letmegodownthelist....Hot'n'sticky-checkLotsofbugs-checkFunkyfood-checkFunky(creole)English-checkAcomplicatedbutworkingracialcastesystem-checkPlacesapersoncankindof"getlost"backinbayouorsoon-moresotherethaninHawaii.

Prettyclosecomparison,andpossibletodrivedownthereinafunkyoldtoyotavan(needtogetoneofthoseagain)andcheckitout,notnearlyasbadascrossing3kmilesofwater.

Yes,thoseareasdointrigueme.Yesthere'sgoingtobesomelandlossduetorisingoceanlevels,butIFthat'sgoingtohappen,I'dbemoreworriedaboutHawaiisincein"Bayouflorsiana"youcanjustkindofbackupalittleonthegentlyslopingland,whileinHawaiiyouhaveflat,low,landthen-boom-steepstuffwithactuallyratherpoorsoil.Poorsoilbecausealltherainmakesthe"goodstuff"rundownontotheflat.IamofcoursefamiliarwithOahu,whichmayinfact,beinganolderisland,havemorenicelowplainsandstufftolosethantheBigIsland.

WhatI'mreallyinterestingindoingisgetanoldtoyotavanlikeIhadbeforeandvagabondaroundabit,IlikeSantaCruzCalifornia,I'mintriguedbythebayoucountry,andtherereallyisjustabouteverykindofecosystemandsocietytoseeonthemainlandUS.

Well,reckonI'llreplytothisone,sinceI'msittinghereonOahuandhavegivennolittlethoughttothepealoilprospectsforthisislandandthisstate.

ButOahu,themostcrowdedHawaiianislandbyfar,isthemostsustainableplaceIhaveseeninmylife.IhavenotseenanyplaceontheMainlandUSpersonallythatcouldevencomeclose.

SpeakingasaguywhohasahomeandyardonOahu,therearesome"plusses",butIcanequallyseeitbecominga"faminetrap"insomefuturescenarios.Thereareprobably1.5millionpeopleonthisisleatanyonetime,andasaWAGIdoubtthatthetotalcropyieldherewouldsupplymorethan100caloriesoffoodperdayapieceforthemifitcametothat.

IthinkIrecallyouwerefromNorthShorearea,andyesitusedtobeprettyidyllicupthereandinplacesstillis.Ifthefoodbargeskeepcoming,andthesewersystemscanbekeptup,itcouldbeanOKislandtobeon.Nobodyfreezesordiesofheathereandthat'sunlikelytochange.Ifeveryonewererequiredtoplantabreadfruittreeandahalf-dozencoconuttreesintheiryard,in25yearstheislandcouldbealotsafer.Butthatisn'thappening;instead,whatlittlegrowinglandthereis,isbeingrezonedurbanasithasbeenformanydecades,andconservationlandisallgolfcoursesbeingwateredbydeepdepletingaquiferwater.Myhomehasacatchmentwaterbackup,butfewdoonthisisland.Rentsarehigh.Ofcourseoncethetouristtradecrashes,propertytaxeswillskyrocketatthesametimepropertyvaluescrash.Already,thesteadyoutflowofdoctorsmakesabitofashamoutofthenear-universalhealthcare.

Insomeways,oahuwilldobetterthanotherplaces,andinsomewaysit'llbeacanaryinthe'peakoil'coalmine.Theouterisles,particularlythebigisle,havealotgreaterpotentialforsubsistencebutwillbeevenmoreintheboondocksintermsofmedicalcareandwhatarenowconsideredbasicneeds.Shouldbeinteresting.

PS:Wow,startedthisanhourago,gotcalledaway,andnowthereareatonofposts,therewerenonewhenIstarted.Sosorryforanyredundancyhere.

Fleam,Don'tgiveawayoursecret.Toomanypeoplearecomingnow!

...andalotarealreadyleaving...oratleasttryingto.Somewerehereonlyfortherealestateboom.Astheboomgoesbust,theywantout.

DavidSmithoftheTimestakesapotatPeakistsandthinksthatProductionwillgetto116billionbarrelsaday….

BecauseAlanGreenspansaysitwill(burieddeepinHere)

Meanwhile,backattheranch…

Clearly,thejournalisthasnotseentheDTI'sownHubbertGraphof2003...

IusedtothinkDavidSmithwassensible...butine-mailstomehesayshedoesn'tthinkweareanywherenearpeak,orifweactuallyarethenthegovernmenthasmadeaterriblemistake!

Hethinksthehighpriceofcrudeisduetoexcessdemandnotconstrainedsupply...it'llsoonbeputright...phew,that'sokthen!

Letshopethatthegovernmenthasn'tmadeamistake!...butdon'tholdyourbreath!

However,lastweek'sSundayTimescoloursupplementhadaverygoodarticle(forMSM)onthecomingenergycrunch...letdownbythesuggestedfixwhichistosetlighttothecoalundertheNorthSeatogassifyit...thecoalthatis!

Xeroid.

Soyoucorrespondaswell

Hmmm...

Ihavemoreorlessgivenupontheman.Ithinkheisclearlyinthecampof'Supplywillalwaysmeetdemand'theoryofeconomics.

ButmaybeIwillsendhimonelastemailtomorrow.

Butanyway.Economicsisayoung'science'...LikeAromatherapy,orReflexology,orSociology,orScientology...

IamofamindtoconsiderthattheUKisbasicallyrealscrewedfrom2015onwards,maybeasearlyas2012.TheGovernmentisnotaddressingthestrategicissuesofPeakEnergyinanysensiblewaythatwillmitigatetheloomingUKEnergyGap.

AnditwilltakeGovernmentandnotthefreemarkettosolvethisatanationallevel.

Ihavetoldmykidstoleave.

asap.

Supplywillalwaysmeetdemand'theoryofeconomics.

Butitdoes.Sometimesthesupplyis'controlled'bytheexchangeofmoneyforgoods,othertimes,bybeinginline/havingsomeformofmarkertoshowyouareentitledtotheitem!

Economicsmakesthingsallgood,don'tyaknow.

YesItoosawthislatestSmitheffort.Ie-mailedtheTimesonlinearticleresponsetellinghimhewillhanghisheadinshameinafewyearsandthathecontinuestodohisreadersaterribledisservice.Ihavenodoubtthat(again)thisresponsewontgetpublished.SmithseemstobelongtoarecentbreedofTimesjournalists(AnatoleKaletskyisanother),whoseemtobetotallyinthralltothedebtladen,housepricedriven,hollowedouteconomythathasbeencreatedintheUKinthepast10years.Theyseemunabletocomprehendofanythingoutsidethismiasma,despitetherecentevidenceoftheUSeconomyintrouble(itselfbasedonasimilarpoisonousbrew).Hencepeakoilisbeyondcomprehensiontohim.

Oneyearago,a32-year-oldtraderatagianthedgefundnamedAmaranthheldhugeswayoverthepricethecountrypaidfornaturalgas.Tradingonunregulatedcommodityexchanges,hemaderiskybetsthatledtothefund'scollapse--and,accordingtoacongressionalinvestigation,highergasbillsforhomeowners.

IsurewishGooglewouldpostmy'unlucky'buttonontheirsearchhomepage.Cometothinkofit:itactuallyisreversed--thecurrent'lucky'buttononlycontributestoouryeastculture,itactuallyshouldbelabeledastheunluckychoice,andthenewluckybuttonwouldfacilitatePeakoilOutreachtobillionsthatourlifestylesneedradicalreform.

Morecorroborationfromanothernewslink:

Harareroutinelysuffersfromperiodicelectricityoutages,butthisoneisdescribedbyresidentsasoneofthemostextendedandwidespreadinrecentmemory,accordingtoourHararecorrespondentSimonMuchemwa.Neverbeforehaveareasinthecentralbusinessdistrictgoneforaweekwithoutelectricityandwater,compoundingtheurbanmiseryintheblisteringheatattheheightofthesummer.

Muchemwasaidtheproblemhighlightsthelargerdifficultiesinacapitalbesetbycrumblinginfrastructureandtoolittleelectricitytokeepthecityfunctioning.Thisisturnhasmeantdrywatertapsasthestrainedelectricitygridcannotprovidesufficientpowertorunwaterpurificationandpumpingstations.

'Thereisconsensusamongevengovernmentofficialsthatthecountry'spowersystemisnearcollapse,'Muchemwasaid.

MuchemwasaidnearlyallresidentialareasinHararehavebeenindarknesssinceMonday,exceptBorrowdale,whichishometoRobertMugabeandmostofhiscabinetministers.

Zesaofficialsarenotevensurewhennormalservicewillresume,predictingthatthetotalblackoutmaypersistintonextweek.----------------------------Gee--yathink

OnThursday,asingleU.S.dollarboughtonemillionZimbabwedollarsforthefirsttime

See!Oureconomyisdoinggreat!

Blackempowermnentpoliciesatwork:

Aracistgovernmentseizingfarmsfromownerswhotookoutmortgagestobuythem.

BTWthecityofMalibuisapparentlyburningdowntoday/tonight.

AramcoVPofOperations,Khalidal-Falih,madesomeinterestingstatementstoday:

INTERVIEW-Energyindustrycandolittleasoilrises-Aramco

Theenergyindustrycandolittletocounterthefactorsbeyondmarketfundamentalsthathavedrivenoilpricestorecordlevels,aseniorexecutiveatstateoilgiantSaudiAramcosaidonSunday...

Aramcoblamesotherfactors,otherthanOPEC'sproduction,forhighprices

"You'vegotgeopolitics,theroleofthespeculators,thedollar,thecreditcrunch...thesethingsplayaroleininfluencingpricesthatnocompanyorthewholeindustrycandomuchabout."...

ItwasstillunclearhowmuchthehighpricewouldencouragethegrowthofalternativefuelsandaffectfuturedemandforSaudioil

Manifadoesn'taddtocapacity

Thenextlargeproject,the900,000bpdMoneefafielddueonlinein2011,wouldnotboostAramco'scapacitybutinsteadwouldcompensatefordeclinesfromotherfields,headded.

ProjectcostinflationmaycausemoredelaysinSaudirefineryprojects

Costshavespiraledfordownstreamprojectsglobally,leadingtoindustryspeculationthatConocoorTotalmaypulloutoftheprojectstobuild400,000bpdplantsinYanbuandJubail.

AramconothavingmuchluckfindinggasinEmptyQuarter

ExplorationbyfourconsortiaofEuropean,RussianandChinesefirmsforgasinSaudiArabia'sEmptyQuarterhadyettoresultindiscoveriesofcommercialquantitiesofgas,Falihsaid.

ReviewingAramco’spost2009promisedcapacityincreases,includingthestatementonManifafromReutersabove,indicatesthatAramcoislettingthetruthoutslowly,bitbybit.

ThischartshowsalistofAramco’spost2009projectsinNovember2006.

FromReutersabove,al-Falihsaidthat“the900,000bpdMoneefafielddueonlinein2011,wouldnotboostAramco'scapacitybutinsteadwouldcompensatefordeclinesfromotherfields”.Thecalculationinthechartaboveneedstoberevised.Line2needstobechangedfrom1.4mbddownto0.90mbdfromnewcapacityonlyfromManifa,sincetheothertwoprojectsarenolongerplanned.Line3hastobeequalto0.90mbdforal-Falih’sstatementtobetrue.Ifthe0.90mbdisnaturalproductiondeclineovertwoyears,thenassumingaproductionrateof9mbdforAramcoin2009,thismeansthatAramco’sunderlyingfielddeclineisabout5%/yr,afterinfilldrilling.

WhatmightbethenextbitoftruthfromAramcoKhuraisperhaps.MypredictionisthatAramcomightsaythefollowingaboutKhurais:“Khuraiswillinitiallyproduce0.8mbd,insteadoftheplanned1.2mbd.Theadditional0.4mbdwillbeanexpansionproject,completedlaterasrequired.”ThisisamoreoptimisticviewthanMattSimmonsonpage215ofhisbookTwilightintheDesert–“ItispuzzlingtoconsiderthatSaudiAramcowouldentertainspending$3to$4billiononKhurais,thinkingthatthefieldcouldproduceasmuchas800,000barrelsofoiladay.Theoddsofreachingthatproductiongoalmustberelativelylong.”

Thisjustin:

Ifnorainfallswithin80days,thelakewillreachthebottomofitsstoragepan,althoughitwillnothaverundry,accordingtoRonaldPayne,deputycommanderoftheMobiledistrictfortheU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers.------------------------Sorry,butmoneyisNOSubstituteforwater,notevenclose:itwillbeinterestingtosee,ifthingsgetmuchworse,ifFEMAdoesaheckuvajoborfumblesagain.

Nawlins'drown-jobbyBrownwillbeseenassmallpotatoesiftheSouthEast,totallydecimatedbydrought,developsaregionalBushfire.Real,politicalflamesfromAtlantatoMalibuItisterriblydryhumorfromtheSouthWest,too.

Interestingtimes,forsure....

Bob,Partandparcelofthedroughtproblemandbeingreallydeficitinyourrainfallisthatevenifitcomesveryniceshowersthewaterjustsoaksinandverylittlerunoff.

Wearewaywaybehindhereandgotthreeinchesinonenight..Ithentrodthecreekbedsorlookedatthemandtherewasveryverylittlerunoff.

Sotheymightgetsomerainbutwillitdoanygood..whenyouarethatfarintheholeitmighttakeoneheckofalot.

NotthatIamanexpertonthis...IamjustinanareashadedasExtremeDrought...andIhaveneverexperienceditherebeforeasfarasdryness.Notthatithasn'thappenedbutnotinthe20+yearsIhavebeenon'this'farm.

IlivedinN.Carolinaforyearsalsoandneversawitasdryasitisnow.

Weareslidingintosomebadtimes..itsrightinfrontofusandhappeningrightnow.Manyaroundhereareactingasthoughitsnothappening...welltheyaregoingtobefeedingtheircattlesomeoftheworsttrashIhaveeverseen...andIcustombaledhayalloverthiscountyformanyyearsafterretirement.NeverhaveIseenthisstuffusedforcattlefeed.Notbyfolkswhousuallyhavethewherewithal.

AnditscomingoffthelandinsteadofbeingleftonthelandtogivebackitsnutrientsandN,P,K..whichinthecaseofcornstalksisverylargeindeed.

airdale-

MediaAlert:"Currentworldoilsupply&ImpactOnPrices"LIVEMonday7:45amETC-SPAN

Probablyjustmoreofthesame,butIhappenedtonoticeitasaprogramupdateonanon-screenoverly.

Speakingofmediaalerts...

NIKKEIdownabunchrightoutofthegate(currently-446.58)

Yup,theeastisredthismorning

Worldoilproductionhasalreadypeakedandwillfallbyhalfassoonas2030,accordingtoareportwhichalsowarnsthatextremeshortagesoffossilfuelswillleadtowarsandsocialbreakdown.

Iwasjustabouttopostthat.Thingsseemtobehottingup.Ohwell,here'sadifferentdoomystory:

Thanksforthat!

Thereportsayspeakin2006andthatproductionisabout81mbdnowand39mbdby2030.Iassumethatthisproductionincludescrudeoil,leasecondensateandnaturalgasplantliquids;andexcludesrefineryprocessinggainsandbiofuels.

Thereportalsosaysproductionwillnowfallby7%/yr-seemshighIfadeclinerateof3.1%/yrisusedandappliedexponentiallyfor23yearsfrom2007to2030,thenthe81mbddropsto39mbd.

Predictionstwentythreeyearsintothefuturearepurenonsense-thosedependoneverythingworkingperfectlyandweallknowmany,manythingsaresimplygoingtobreakdownandneverberepaired.

Twentythreemonthpredictionsarealotmoreinteresting...

Leanan...youmightconsiderthisfortheA#1spotontomorrow'sDrumbeat...justaddinganotherlogtothefire...POAwareness-2007istheyear!!

Ijusthadaquickscananddespitesomeflaws,theapproachwasfreshandbold–Ilikedit.

Hereistheirpeakchartofcrudeoil,leasecondensateandnaturalgasplantliquids.

WorldOilProductionhasPeakedin2006–(page71)

clicktoenlarge

Accordingtothescenariocalculations,oilproductionwilldeclinebyabout50%until2030.Thisisequivalenttoanaverageannualdeclinerateof3%,wellinlinewiththeUSexperiencewhereoilproductionfromthelower48statesdeclinedby2-3%peryear.(page68)

ThereportmakescomparisonstotheforecastsofCampbellandRobeliusonpage69.

IreallylikedAnnex2ofthereport,whichcritiquedtheUSGS,EIAandIEA,frompage75topage91!

Thisisthefinalremarkofthecritiqueonpage91

TheprojectionspresentedbyUSGS,EIAandIEAregardingthefutureavailabilityofoilgivereasontograveconcernsbecausethecomfortingmessagesofthesestudiesunfortunatelyarenotbasedonvalidarguments.

Thesestudiesignorefuturelimitationsinthesupplyofoilwhicharemeanwhileapparent,andbydoingthistheysendmisleadingpoliticalsignals.

Itshouldalsobenotedhowthesestudiesbuildoneachother.ThesupportinggroundfloorhasbeenbuiltbytheUSGS2000study:itdescribes,howmuchoiltheworldhasatitsdisposal-itjustneedstobefound.OnthistheEIAhasbuiltafirstfloorwhichdescribesthefutureproductionpotential.Theresultisthatinfactanyconceivablefuturegrowthofproductionwillbepossible-withgrowthratesexceedingeverythingthatcouldbeobservedinthepast.Ontopofthis,theIEAconstructsasecondfloor:thepredictedgrowthinoildemandforthenextdecadeswillnotberestrictedbyanylimitsofsupply.Thisisahouseofcards.

ItreallyistimefortheUSGS,theEIAandtheIEAtopresentreasonableoilforecaststotheworld.Thelasttwoparagraphsonpage71sumthisup.

Thenowbeginningtransitionperiodprobablyhasitsownruleswhicharevalidonlyduringthisphase.Thingsmighthappenwhichweneverexperiencedbeforeandwhichwemayneverexperienceagainoncethistransitionperiodhasended.Ourwayofdealingwithenergyissuesprobablywillhavetochangefundamentally.

TheInternationalEnergyAgency,anywayuntilrecently,deniesthatsuchafundamentalchangeofourenergysupplyislikelytohappeninthenearormediumtermfuture.ThemessagebytheIEA,namelythatbusinessasusualwillalsobepossibleinfuture,sendsafalsesignaltopoliticians,industryandconsumers–nottoforgetthemedia.

Ace,thanksforpostingthis.

ItreallyistimefortheUSGS,theEIAandtheIEAtopresentreasonableoilforecaststotheworld.

Anythoughtsonwhatmighttriggeranyofthesegroupstoaltertheirforecastsbeforeshortagesanddepletionareobvioustoall,andmitigationistoolate

USTODreaders:weneedyourhelp

TheUShaswhatarecalledneighborhoodelectricvehicle(NEV)orLowSpeedVehicle(LSV)regulations.Thepurposeoftheseregulationswastopermitvehiclesonthestreetsthatotherwisewouldnotnormallybeallowedbecausetheydon'tmeetthesafetyrequirementsofregularcars.Theiradvantageisthattheyarepresumablylessexpensivetobuildandoperateanddon'tusegasolineforfuel.Becausethesevehiclesarepresumablylesssafe,theseregulationslimitthevehiclesto25mphonstreetsof35mphorlessspeedlimits.MostoftheStateshaveadoptedtheseregulations.

AcoupleofStates(MontanaandWashington)havedecidedthattheseregulationsaretoorestrictiveofthemarketandhavepassedadditionalregulationsdefininganMSV(MediumSpeedVehicle).Theseallowoperationofthevehicleatspeedsupto35mphandonstreetswitha45mphlimitorless.I'msurethattheMSVwouldbemuchmoreapealingintheelectricvehiclemarketplace.

IwouldrecommendthattheUSreadersofTODgetbehindeffortstoexpandthecoverageoftheMSVnationallyand/ortomoreStatestoenhancetheadoptionofelectricvehiclesinthiscountryinlightofthecomingoilcrunch.

KnowingnothingaboutthisI'dguessitwaspoliticallyacceptabletopermitatypeofcarthatwouldn'tactuallygetused...butwithgaspricesgoingtothestratosphereitcouldbeapieceofpoliticalgamesmanshipthatmayactuallyproveuseful.

ActuallytheEnergyWatchGroup,aGermanorganizationwehavequotedbeforeonCoal.

TheDrudgeReportandmainstreaminthesamesentencewithoutanyintentiontobeironic.Theworldtrulyhasgonemad.

WhileyoumayfindMattDrudge'spoliticsnottoyourtaste,450millionhitsamonthismainstreaminanybodysbook.

ThegeopoliticalsituationinIraqisbecomingmoreandmorecomplicatedfortheBushAdministration.TurkeyisonthevergeofmovingtroopsintoNorthernIraq(defactoKurdistan)afterthelatestPKKattackonTurkishtroops.Ontopofthat,thepopulistandpro-BushgovernmentinPolandhaslosttheelectionstoaliberalcoalitionthathasalreadyannouncedthatPolandwillwithdrawitstroopsfromIraqin2008.Inaddition,the"new"PolishgovernmentwillalsolikelybackoutoftheUSmissiledefenseplanunlessitreceivessubstantialsecurityguaranteesfromtheUS.Putincouldn'tbehappierI'msure.

(Sorryit'sinSpanish,butit'sthemostcomprehensivearticleIcouldfind.)

ATurkishinvasionofNorthernIraqwouldbeanabsoluteembarrassmenttoBush.TheKurdishgovernmentisestimatedtohave100,000menavailabletotakeuparmsagainstTurkeyshouldtheyattack.Inotherwords,itwillnotbeapicnicforTurkeyanditcouldleadtoaprolongedandbloodywar.Itwillobviouslyhaveahugeimpactonoilproduction/exportsandthepriceofoil.

TheKurdsstartsigningoildealsthatdon'tinvolvethemaingovernmentandsuddenlyallsortsoftroublebegins.IknowTurkeyisconcernedaboutanindependentKurdistanbuttherehastobesomethingelsegoingon,takingtheU.S.HouseresolutionregardingTurkishgenocide.

Isupposeifwecrashfasttherewon'tevenbeabookwrittenintenyearsthatexplainsitall...