林子大了,什么样的鸟都有。但是,现在的交友网站层出不穷,不管你的爱好多么另类、小众,都有都能找到属于自己的交友网站。然而,很少有人知道,很多这类小众网站实际上是一些大公司的旗下分支,而决定人们姻缘的并不是命运,而是算法。
假设你正在寻找真爱,再假设你正好喜欢讽刺小报《洋葱报》(TheOnion)。你可能会在洋葱报的官网TheOnion.com的约会网站上发布自己的个人信息。这家媒体的标题往往惊世骇俗,比如什么《小猫咪整天就想着杀人》,再比如,《研究显示宝宝都是脑残》等。自然,你认为自己将和同样喜欢这个刊物的人交上朋友。可是,你的个人资料却被纳入了一个更大的数据库——里面一共有1,422,000个用户。结果系统把你和另一个寻求交友服务的单身人士配上对了,只不过对方是在另一个网站——Salon.com——上注册的。
欢迎来到奇特的、互联互通的在线交友世界。这样的网站成百上千,其中很多都拥有极其特定的目标用户群。有些网站专门服务于热衷讽刺作品的人群,有些则专门针对僵尸爱好者、客观主义者、或者“鲻鱼头”生活方式者(mulletlife-style,一种前额及两侧短发,脑后长发的发型所代表的生活方式,1960年代开始在影视作品中出现,风行至今——译注)。如果一个行业观察者认为这个飞速发展的行业正变得日益碎片化,他的观点不无道理。然而实际情况恰恰相反——事实上,这个行业正日益由越来越少的公司控制着越来越大的市场份额。
比如,《洋葱报》和Salon的交友网站都是由一家叫FastCupid的公司运作的。而这家公司是交友网络公司(FriendFinderNetwork)的子公司。而交友网络曾名为“阁楼媒体集团”(PenthouseMediaGroup),运作着4万多家网站(没错,就是那个色情媒体巨擘“阁楼”)。所以,突然之间你会发现,你自认为通过《洋葱报》登陆的小众交友社区实际上规模要大得多。而这并不表示你们的兴趣不会有交集。
可以肯定的是,交友网络公司不会把下属各家品牌网站上的个人资料全部混合到一起(针对这个问题,该公司没有作出回应)。这样做是为了实现最优结果,因为来自单身基督徒交友网站BigChurch.com的用户可能就没法和来自所谓“世界最大捆绑虐恋(BDSM,一种对特殊性虐待的偏好——译注)社区”Bondage.com的用户处得来。很多成熟的在线交友网站都会避免这种乱点鸳鸯谱的做法,但在英国,这种做法却是常见,可以算是一种标准行为。而这只是该行业快速整合的一个后果而已。
IBISWorld公司的一项研究表明,目前四大公司控制着总规模高达12.2亿美元的在线交友市场77%的份额。与五年前相比,这个增幅可谓惊人,并且很可能会继续攀升。随着美国的在线交友市场发展陷入停滞——去年收入仅增长3.5%——初创公司发现要想挤进这个市场正变得日益困难,而那些二线公司正努力争取能够继续盈利。
Let'ssayyou'relookingforlove.Let'salsosayyoulovethesatiricalnewspaperTheOnion.YoumightdecidetomakeaprofileonTheOnion.comdatingsite.Naturally,youassumethatyou'llbeconnectedtootherloversofthepublicationknownforheadlinessuchas"KittenThinksofNothingButMurderAllDay"and"StudyRevealsBabiesAreStupid."Instead,yourprofileisenteredintoamuchlargerdatabase--consistingofsome1,422,000users--andyou'repairedupwithanothersinglewhosignedforthesameservice,butthroughanothersite,Salon.com.
Welcometotheweird,interconnectedworldofonlinedating.Therearethousandsofsitesoutthere,manywithanincredibledegreeofspecificityintheirtargetaudience.Therearesitesforsatireenthusiasts,ofcourse,butalsoforzombie-lovers,objectivists,andpeoplelivingthemulletlife-style.Anobservercouldbeforgivenforthinkingthatthefast-growingindustryisbecomingincreasinglyfragmented.Buttherealityisexactlytheopposite.Asmallerandsmallernumberofcompaniesarecontrollingagreaterandgreatershareofthemarket.
Forinstance,thepersonalssitesforTheOnionandSalonarebothpoweredbyaservicecalledFastCupid.ThatcompanyisapropertyofFriendFinderNetwork.FriendFinderNetwork,formerlycalledPenthouseMediaGroup,operatesmorethan40,000sites.(Yes,it'sthatPenthouse.)Suddenly,thenichecommunityyouthoughtyouweretappingintobysigningupwithTheOnionDating,turnsouttobemuchlarger.Whichisn'ttosayyourinterestswillnotoverlap.
Tobesure,FriendFinderlikelydoesnotmixtogetheralltheprofilesofallitsbrandedsites.(Thecompanydidnotreturncallsforcomment.)That'sprobablyforthebest,becausepeoplefromoneproperty,BigChurch.comforChristiansinglesforexample,maynotgetalongwiththosefromanother,say,Bondage.com,"theworld'slargestBDSMcommunity."Manyestablishedonlinedatingoperatorseschewthepracticealtogether,butit'sfairlycommon,particularlyintheU.K.whereit'sstandardpractice.Andit'sjustoneresultofthefastconsolidationintheindustry.
Today,fourcompaniescontrol77%ofthe$1.22billiononlinedatingmarket,accordingtoresearchfromIBISWorld.That'supsubstantiallyfromfiveyearsagoandislikelytoclimbhigher.WiththemarketforonlinedatingstagnatingintheU.S.--revenuegrewjust3.5%lastyear--startupsarefindingitincreasinglydifficulttobreakintothespace,andsecond-tierplayersarestrugglingtostayprofitable.
现在,巴里迪勒的IAC公司掌控着41%的市场份额,这主要得归功于旗下两家网站Match.com和OkCupid.com。eHarmony公司紧随其后,份额达到了23.5%。排在第三位是Zoosk,份额为7.7%。最后是SparkNetworks(拥有JDate、ChristianMingle、LDSMingle等网站),份额为4.9%。
每家公司的网站背后都是大体相似的神奇算法在发挥威力。IAC称其所有网站的后台技术并不完全相同,但每收购一家网站,它就会修改这些技术,把它发挥到极致。SparkNetworks的很多网站也是这种情况。在JDate和ChristianMingle上,个人资料可能有所不同,但实际产品和流程却是相似的。
尽管SparkNetworks规定下属网站之间不可共用用户资料,但首席执行官格雷格利伯曼称,他发现那些规模较小的山寨网站经常这么干。他说:“这类网站层出不穷。进入一家针对基督教徒的网站主页,居然能搜索出50种不同宗教信仰的用户资料。”和SparkNetworks一样,IAC也不会混用下属各家网站的个人资料,为此它采用了一个名为“贴白标”(whitelabeling)的流程。不过它却为自己庞大的用户数据库开发了其他用途。创建了专为50岁以上的单身人士服务的新网站之后,它将其推介给下属网站SeniorPeopleMeet.com和SeniorsMeet.com的现有会员。
译者:清远
Rightnow,BarryDiller'sIAC(IACI)controls41%ofthemarket,thanksinlargeparttoitspropertiesMatch.comandOkCupid.com.eHarmonyisnext,with23.5%ofthemarket.InthirdplaceisZooskat7.7%,followedbySparkNetworks(ownerofJDate,ChristianMingle,LDSMingle,andmore)at4.9%.
Muchofthesamealgorithmicmagicisatworkacrosseachcompany'ssites.IACsaysitsback-endengineeringisnotidenticalforallitsproperties,butthatitdoesreviseandtweakthemwitheachnewacquisition.It'sasimilarstorywith,SparkNetworks'manyproperties.TheprofilesmightbedifferentonJDateandChristianMingle,buttheactualproductandprocessaresimilar.
WhileSparkNetworkshasapolicyofnotmixingprofilesbetweensites,CEOGregLibermansaysheseessmaller,copycatsitestrythatoften."Theypopupallthetime,"hesays."YougothroughaChristianfrontdoor,andthenyoucandoasearchfor50differentreligions."LikeSparkNetworks,IACalsodoesnotmixtheprofilesbetweenitssites,aprocessknownas"whitelabeling."Itdoesfindotherusesforitsmassiveuserbase,though.Whenitcreatedthenewsiteforsinglesages50andup,OurTime.com,itpopulateditwithexistingmembersfromitssitesSeniorPeopleMeet.comandSeniorsMeet.com.
Eventhesuper-specializedmulletdatingwebsiteispartofamuchlargergroup,thePassionsNetwork.MembersitesalsoincludeFestivusPassions.comforSeinfeldfansandStachePassions.comforthemustachioed.Themajorityofthecompany'suserswhojoindeclareseveralpassions.
Despitethecompetitiveadvantageconferredbynichemarkets,bigdata-drivendatingclearinghousesmaybethewayofthefutureformuchoftheonlinedatingindustry."Strategically,biggerisbest,"saysBrooks,industryanalystandeditorofOnlinePersonalsWatch."IfyouconsiderwhatwouldbetheperfectmodelforanInternetdatingsite,intheoryitwouldhaveallthepeopleintheworldwhoaresingleonit,andyoucouldfindyourperfectmatchwithinaday'swork."AsinglemajorU.S.servicethatcontrolsmorethan50%ofmarketshareis"inevitable,"Brookssays.Intheoryatleast,abiggerpoolmeansmorehappymatches,evenifthey'refromunlikelysources.Dataconfirms:"It'skindofawasteoftimeanywayaskingpeoplewhattheywantanyway,"Brookssays."Becausetheydon'treallyknow."